Allan von Mehren
Danske Bank A/S
Market movers ahead
There will be a lot of focus on Fed speeches over the coming week. None of the board members are scheduled to speak but we will have both doves (Narayana Kocherlakota, Eric Rosengren and Dennis P. Lockhart) and more neutral members (Loretta Mester and James B. Bullard) speaking.
It is a busy week with several data releases. Most important are the ISMs and the January employment report. We expect the employment report, released on Friday, to show continued solid job growth.
In the eurozone, we expect focus to be on the manufacturing sector, with German industrial production and factory orders for November and manufacturing PMI numbers for several eurozone countries.
The ECB’s Peter Praet is due to speak on Sovereign risk and macroeconomics at a conference organised by Moody’s (among others) in Frankfurt. We expect some comments on the newly introduced purchase programme in government bonds.
In the UK next week, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will hold its February meeting. We expect the MPC to maintain the Bank Rate and the stock of purchased assets at 0.50% and GBP375bn, respectively.
Global macro and market themes
We are still positive on risk assets.
Bond yields fall on pension demand but fundamentals point to higher yields in H2.
More upside in the USD.
Euro area seeing strong mix of tailwinds – more signs of recovery.
Uncertainty over Fed lift-off – ‘international developments’ added to the equation.
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EUR/USD steadies above 1.0600, awaits German ZEW and Powell speech
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SOL primed for a breakout as it completes a rounding bottom pattern
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Key economic and earnings releases to watch
The market’s focus may be on geopolitical issues at the start of this week, but there is a large amount of economic data and more earnings releases to digest in the coming days.