Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Market movers ahead
We expect US Q1 GDP growth to be revised lower over the coming week, due primarily to exports and inventories. We expect the underlying upward trend in the US housing market to continue and we look for a rebound in both new home sales and pending home sales in April.
In the euro area, the most important release next week is the data on money and credit. We estimate M3 growth increased 4.9% y/y in April. Further, upcoming speeches from ECB President Mario Draghi and ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet should also attract some attention.
In the UK, the State Opening of Parliament and the Queen’s Speech will attract some attention. Brexit is a market theme expected to develop in the future and an EU referendum could play a central role in the Queen’s Speech.
In Japan, focus will be on the release of consumer price data for April. The impact of the consumption tax hike in April last year has disappeared from the year-on year comparison and we estimate the increase in CPI excluding fresh food fell sharply to 0.2% y/y, from 2.2% y/y March, which is broadly in line with the Bank of Japan’s expectations.
In Scandinavia, focus will be on Swedish Q1 GDP data and Norwegian unemployment figures.
Global macro and market themes
Euro area growth takes a breather while US rebounds.
Tentative signs of bottom in China.
Stock markets recover, bond yields in limbo.
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