Market movers ahead
- We expect the focus to remain on oil price development and Russia over the comingweeks.
- In the US, we estimate PCE core inflation was 1.5% y/y in November: The labourmarket report for December is due to be released in the first week of January.
- In the euro area, we expect headline HICP for December to decline to negativeterritory at -0.1% y/y, while core inflation should remain unchanged at 0.7% y/y.
- The third and final round of the Greek presidential election is scheduled for 29December.
- Danish FX reserves may attract some attention due to the strong krone.
Global macro and market themes
- Risk markets recover following another correction.
- Stronger business cycle signals are set to underpin risk assets in H1 15.
- Looming Fed hikes put upward pressure on US yields and the USD.
Focus
- Flash Comment: Rouble liquidity squeeze set to weigh on GDP growth, 19 December.
- Flash Comment: Euro inflation set to decline to -0.5% and remain negative untilQ4 15, 19 December.
- Research Global: Oil price to bottom when non-OPEC output rise halts – déjà vuNo 2, 18 December.
- Flash Comment: FOMC meeting – It all depends on the data, 17 December
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Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD remained bid above 0.6500
AUD/USD extended further its bullish performance, advancing for the fourth session in a row on Thursday, although a sustainable breakout of the key 200-day SMA at 0.6526 still remain elusive.
EUR/USD faces a minor resistance near at 1.0750
EUR/USD quickly left behind Wednesday’s small downtick and resumed its uptrend north of 1.0700 the figure, always on the back of the persistent sell-off in the US Dollar ahead of key PCE data on Friday.
Gold holds around $2,330 after dismal US data
Gold fell below $2,320 in the early American session as US yields shot higher after the data showed a significant increase in the US GDP price deflator in Q1. With safe-haven flows dominating the markets, however, XAU/USD reversed its direction and rose above $2,340.
Bitcoin price continues to get rejected from $65K resistance as SEC delays decision on spot BTC ETF options
Bitcoin (BTC) price has markets in disarray, provoking a broader market crash as it slumped to the $62,000 range on Thursday. Meanwhile, reverberations from spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to influence the market.
US economy: slower growth with stronger inflation
The dollar strengthened, and stocks fell after statistical data from the US. The focus was on the preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter. Annualised quarterly growth came in at just 1.6%, down from the 2.5% and 3.4% previously forecast.