Allan von Mehren
Danske Bank A/S
Market Movers ahead
In the euro area the flash estimate for HICP inflation in November is released, and we expect it to decline back to this cycle’s low of 0.3% y/y .
German IFO expectations are expected to give a sign of improvement, as we forecast an increase for the first time since April. ZEW expectations increased for the first time in 10 months in November, and this is usually a good indication that IFO expectations will also increase.
Money supply and lending figures for October are also released in the euro area and we expect recent improvements to continue.
Consumers will be in focus this coming week in the US, with two US consumer confidence surveys up for release. The outlook on inflation expectations in the consumer surveys will be the most important item to watch, given the importance of these expectations for the Fed.
In Japan most of the hard economic data for October will be released next week, where we see industrial production and retail sales as the most important.
Next week OPEC meets in Vienna for its biannual assessment of its output target.
Global macro and market themes
The biggest stimulus to consumers from an oil price decline since 2008. It strengthens the recovery case in early 2015 and thus risk asset performance.
Bond yield decline stabilises on rise in risk appetite.
Tentative signs of bottoming in the euro area.
Rise in US core inflation eases downside inflation risks.
Rate cut in China underpins pick-up in growth.
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