U.S. Review
It’s Shaping Up to Be a Soft Quarter
- Housing market data looked better this week with both existing and new home sales rising in February.
- Consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in February as oil prices edged higher for the month.
- Durable goods orders pulled back sharply in February, but even more concerning was the decline in core capital goods orders and shipments, which suggests less business investment in the first quarter.
- The third look at fourth-quarter GDP showed the economy expanded at a 2.2 percent pace identical to the second estimate.
Global Review
The Eurozone on One Engine; Brazil Stagnant
- For now, the Eurozone's economy is improving as the German economy strengthens. The ZEW and the IFO indices are both showing improvement. However, we should start to see other economies of the Eurozone region follow the lead of Germany.
- The Brazilian economy was able to avoid a recession in 2014 as it barely grew by a 0.1 percent rate. And this year does not look much better for the Brazilian economy as we are expecting a drop of 0.2 percent. That is, we suspect stagnant growth will continue for several years.
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Editors’ Picks
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EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
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Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
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Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.