U.S. Review

Q3 Kicks It into High Gear

  • The factory sector has accelerated, with the ISM manufacturing index surging in August, factory orders showing strength beyond aircraft in July and power & manufacturing leading nonresidential construction spending.

  • August’s ISM nonmanufacturing index jumped to its highest level in nine years, while the trade deficit narrowed in July, pointing to more broad-based growth in the economy.

  • Nonfarm payrolls grew by a somewhat disappointing 142,000 in August, although all signs point to this being an anomaly. The unemployment rate ticked down to 6.1 percent.

Factory Sector Fuels Momentum

Nonfarm payrolls increased just 142,000 in August, and revisions to prior months were negative, however, average monthly payroll growth for the year remains strong at 215,000. Jobless claims, the ISM surveys and the ADP number all suggest that payroll growth is likely higher than what was seen in the first nonfarm payrolls print for August. Furthermore, nearly all other data released this week point to an accelerating economy. For September, look for upward revisions, a stronger payrolls number, or both.

The factory sector has made notable improvements, which bode well for business spending. The ISM manufacturing index jumped to 59.0 in August, with the production index improving markedly. More new orders and their growing backlog indicate that production should remain elevated and that business spending on equipment should be higher in the second half of the year. A surge in aircraft orders dominated July’s factory orders data, but growth in other durables remained strong. Growing demand for autos is also fueling the factory sector’s recent progress with vehicle sales posting a sizable gain in August. Unseasonably strong auto production in July contributed to the flat manufacturing payrolls seen in August. Fewer autoworkers were recalled in August because more were maintained in July this year. Nondurable shipments, however, fell 0.9 percent in the month. Petroleum and coal shipments accounted for more than that entire decline, but falling oil and gas prices likely overstate the weakness here.

The oil and gas industry has had an outsized effect on numerous components of the economy as well. More than half of the $1.8 billion rise in exports in July came from petroleum products and helped the overall deficit narrow to $40.5 billion. Although petroleum product imports grew in the month, the overall trend clearly indicates that the nation is importing less of those products from abroad as domestic production rises. The overall trade deficit is likely to widen some again as Europe grapples with a slow economy and U.S. demand for foreign products grows along with the domestic economy.

More Than Manufacturing

Business spending on structures also appears to have improved. Private nonresidential construction in July was up 14.1 percent from a year ago and is accelerating. Two huge petrochemical plants on the Gulf coast began in the month, which contributed to the outsized effect power and manufacturing had on the headline number. Growth in construction spending goes beyond these two sectors. Public construction spending has perked up thanks to state and local outlays, and although private residential construction spending has moderated, it remains positive.

The ISM nonmanufacturing index was also released this week, and jumped to 59.6, its highest level in nine years, showing that momentum in the economy is broad based. New orders ticked down to 63.8 in August but have remained above 60 for four consecutive months, which points to strong growth outside of the factory sector.


Global Review

ECB Cuts Rates Further and Starts to Buy ABS

  • The European Central Bank this week cut three policy rates further in an effort to guide short-term interest rates even lower. The ECB also announced that it was embarking on a program to buy asset-backed securities, and indicated it is prepared to ease policy even further.

  • The ECB’s actions were taken against a backdrop of weak economic growth and essentially no inflation. We expect that growth will remain sluggish and that inflation will remain non-existent for the foreseeable future. Therefore, we look for the ECB to begin a QE program centered on sovereign bonds at some point over the next few months.

Two weeks ago ECB President Draghi indicated that the central bank could ease again when he stated that the ECB “stands ready to adjust (its) policy stance further.” Many analysts thought these remarks indicated that the ECB could eventually embark on a program of quantitative easing (QE), much as its U.S. and U.K. counterparts have done over the past few years. Therefore, the decision on Thursday by the Governing Council of the ECB to cut rates further caught many analysts by surprise.

Specifically, the ECB announced that it would reduce its main refinancing rate, at which banks can borrow directly from the ECB for a two-week period, from 0.15 percent to 0.05 percent. In addition, the ECB reduced its marginal lending rate and its deposit rate by 10 bps each. These rates are important because they set a corridor in which the overnight interbank rate fluctuates (see chart on front page). By reducing its three policy rates, the ECB intends to put further downward pressure on interbank lending rates, which have nosedived in recent days. A side effect of lower interest rates is euro depreciation, and the euro has dropped to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar in more than a year (top chart).

The ECB also announced that it would begin to purchase assetbacked securities (ABS). The purpose of this policy change is to reduce long-term borrowing costs for nonfinancial businesses. With credit growth to the nonfinancial business sector anemic at present, any policy change that stimulates credit would be welcome news.

The ECB’s actions on Thursday were taken against a backdrop of weak economic growth and essentially no inflation. Real GDP in the overall euro area was flat in Q2 with outright contractions registered in Germany and Italy. Moreover, real GDP in Q2 was up only 0.7 percent on a year-ago basis, and recent indicators suggest that growth remains sluggish in the third quarter. The manufacturing PMI has been trending lower since early this year, and the service sector PMI, which had been moving higher, edged down in August (middle chart). There was some good news this week in the form of German factory orders, which shot up 4.6 percent in volume terms in July. That said, German factory orders have been essentially flat on balance all year, indicating there is less to the one-month surge than initially meets the eye.

The Governing Council characterized the risks to its economic outlook as skewed to the downside, meaning that the ECB could ease policy further. Indeed, President Draghi said that “the Governing Council is unanimous in its commitment to using additional unconventional instruments within its mandate.” Most analysts (ourselves included) interpret this message to mean that the ECB stands ready to implement a QE program focused on sovereign bonds. Indeed, long-term government bond yields in most Eurozone countries have plummeted recently in anticipation of such a program. With growth expected to remain slow and with inflation expected to remain near zero percent (bottom chart), we look for the ECB to embark on a sovereign bond QE program later this year or early next year.

Recently, the stock market has experienced high levels of volatility. If you are thinking about participating in fast moving markets, please take the time to read the information below. Wells Fargo Investments, LLC will not be restricting trading on fast moving securities, but you should understand that there can be significant additional risks to trading in a fast market. We've tried to outline the issues so you can better understand the potential risks. If you're unsure about the risks of a fast market and how they may affect a particular trade you've considering, you may want to place your trade through a phone agent at 1-800-TRADERS. The agent can explain the difference between market and limit orders and answer any questions you may have about trading in volatile markets. Higher Margin Maintenance Requirements on Volatile Issues The wide swings in intra-day trading have also necessitated higher margin maintenance requirements for certain stocks, specifically Internet, e-commerce and high-tech issues. Due to their high volatility, some of these stocks will have an initial and a maintenance requirement of up to 70%. Stocks are added to this list daily based on market conditions. Please call 1-800-TRADERS to check whether a particular stock has a higher margin maintenance requirement. Please note: this higher margin requirement applies to both new purchases and current holdings. A change in the margin requirement for a current holding may result in a margin maintenance call on your account. Fast Markets A fast market is characterized by heavy trading and highly volatile prices. These markets are often the result of an imbalance of trade orders, for example: all "buys" and no "sells." Many kinds of events can trigger a fast market, for example a highly anticipated Initial Public Offering (IPO), an important company news announcement or an analyst recommendation. Remember, fast market conditions can affect your trades regardless of whether they are placed with an agent, over the internet or on a touch tone telephone system. In Fast Markets service response and account access times may vary due to market conditions, systems performance, and other factors. Potential Risks in a Fast Market "Real-time" Price Quotes May Not be Accurate Prices and trades move so quickly in a fast market that there can be significant price differences between the quotes you receive one moment and the next. Even "real-time quotes" can be far behind what is currently happening in the market. The size of a quote, meaning the number of shares available at a particular price, may change just as quickly. A real-time quote for a fast moving stock may be more indicative of what has already occurred in the market rather than the price you will receive. Your Execution Price and Orders Ahead In a fast market, orders are submitted to market makers and specialists at such a rapid pace, that a backlog builds up which can create significant delays. Market makers may execute orders manually or reduce size guarantees during periods of volatility. When you place a market order, your order is executed on a first-come first-serve basis. This means if there are orders ahead of yours, those orders will be executed first. The execution of orders ahead of yours can significantly affect your execution price. Your submitted market order cannot be changed or cancelled once the stock begins trading. Initial Public Offerings may be Volatile IPOs for some internet, e-commerce and high tech issues may be particularly volatile as they begin to trade in the secondary market. Customers should be aware that market orders for these new public companies are executed at the current market price, not the initial offering price. Market orders are executed fully and promptly, without regard to price and in a fast market this may result in an execution significantly different from the current price quoted for that security. Using a limit order can limit your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. Large Orders in Fast Markets Large orders are often filled in smaller blocks. An order for 10,000 shares will sometimes be executed in two blocks of 5,000 shares each. In a fast market, when you place an order for 10,000 shares and the real-time market quote indicates there are 15,000 shares at 5, you would expect your order to execute at 5. In a fast market, with a backlog of orders, a real-time quote may not reflect the state of the market at the time your order is received by the market maker or specialist. Once the order is received, it is executed at the best prices available, depending on how many shares are offered at each price. Volatile markets may cause the market maker to reduce the size of guarantees. This could result in your large order being filled in unexpected smaller blocks and at significantly different prices. For example: an order for 10,000 shares could be filled as 2,500 shares at 5 and 7,500 shares at 10, even though you received a real-time quote indicating that 15,000 shares were available at 5. In this example, the market moved significantly from the time the "real-time" market quote was received and when the order was submitted. Online Trading and Duplicate Orders Because fast markets can cause significant delays in the execution of a trade, you may be tempted to cancel and resubmit your order. Please consider these delays before canceling or changing your market order, and then resubmitting it. There is a chance that your order may have already been executed, but due to delays at the exchange, not yet reported. When you cancel or change and then resubmit a market order in a fast market, you run the risk of having duplicate orders executed. Limit Orders Can Limit Risk A limit order establishes a "buy price" at the maximum you're willing to pay, or a "sell price" at the lowest you are willing to receive. Placing limit orders instead of market orders can reduce your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. A limit order does not guarantee your order will be executed -" however, it does guarantee you will not pay a higher price than you expected. Telephone and Online Access During Volatile Markets During times of high market volatility, customers may experience delays with the Wells Fargo Online Brokerage web site or longer wait times when calling 1-800-TRADERS. It is possible that losses may be suffered due to difficulty in accessing accounts due to high internet traffic or extended wait times to speak to a telephone agent. Freeriding is Prohibited Freeriding is when you buy a security low and sell it high, during the same trading day, but use the proceeds of its sale to pay for the original purchase of the security. There is no prohibition against day trading, however you must avoid freeriding. To avoid freeriding, the funds for the original purchase of the security must come from a source other than the sale of the security. Freeriding violates Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board concerning the extension of credit by the broker-dealer (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) to its customers. The penalty requires that the customer's account be frozen for 90 days. Stop and Stop Limit Orders A stop is an order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the stop price chosen. You are guaranteed to get an execution. For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A stop limit has two major differences from a stop order. With a stop limit, you are not guaranteed to get an execution. If you do get an execution on your trade, you are guaranteed to get your limit price or better. For example, you place an order to sell stock you own at a stop limit of $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a limit order and your trade will only be executed at $67 or better. Glossary All or None (AON) A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed. Day Order A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session. Fill or Kill An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled. Good Til Canceled (GTC) An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order). Immediate or Cancel An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled. Limit Order An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases). Maintenance Call A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity. Margin Requirement Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales. Market Makers NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds. Market Order An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace. Specialists Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy. Stop An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. Stop Limit An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order. These articles are for information and education purposes only. You will need to evaluate the merits and risks associated with relying on any information provided. Although this article may provide information relating to approaches to investing or types of securities and investments you might buy or sell, Wells Fargo and its affiliates are not providing investment recommendations, advice, or endorsements. Data have been obtained from what are considered to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Wells Fargo makes no warranties and bears no liability for your use of this information. The information made available to you is not intended, and should not be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice, or a legal opinion.

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