U.S. Review
A Broadening Recovery Offsets Near-Term Weakness
- Nonfarm payrolls increased across most industries in March, signaling that the recovery is broadening and likely gaining momentum as payrolls rose by 192,000.
- The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7 percent but the labor force participation rate and employment-population ratio both increased.
- Reports on manufacturing, motor vehicles sales, construction spending, and aggregate hours worked show the economy bouncing back from weather-induced setbacks earlier this year. February's wider trade gap, however, hints that Q1 GDP growth may have been surprisingly soft.
Global Review
ECB Stays on Hold, Brazil’s Central Bank Hikes Again
- As widely expected, the European Central Bank kept its policy rates unchanged this week but it maintained its bias to ease further. Recent economic data suggest that the slow recovery that began in early 2013 has continued into this year.
- The Central Bank of Brazil hiked rates for the ninth time in the past twelve months. With inflation starting to recede somewhat and growth remaining very sluggish, the central bank hinted that the rate hike cycle may be over, at least for now.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.