Dzhafer Medzhakhed
Chifbaw LLC
Recommendations:
High risk: Buy the AUDUSD at the market, SL 0.9100, targets 0.9250, 0.930, 0.95.
Low risk: Buy the EURUSD at 1.2900, SL 1.2730, targets 1.30, 1.34, 1.40.
Analysis:
The EURUSD has fallen during last week as we expected. The weekly chart on EURUSD displays a candlestick close to a pin, and the price action during last week also showed a rather deep pocket of bulls supporting the euro. This might indicate that the retest of the lower edge of the trading range (1.2750-1.29) is unlikely at the moment. We would avoid entering any positions in EURUSD next week except if the pair falls below 1.29.
The USDJPY has broken outside its uncertainty wedge to the upside. And it would be logical for the pair to go revisit its previous high in the 103.xx. However, the bearish engulfing candle formed on a daily level and the steepness of the fall that occurred on Friday suggests that the retest of 103 either won’t happen in the coming week, either that the indecision pattern is still in formation. We would not trade this pair for now.
The AUDUSD finished the week closer to 0.92, and is now displaying bullish characteristics. The resistance around 0.92 has not been crossed, but once this barrier is broken, the chances that we reach 0.95 are very high. The risky way to trade this is to enter immediately long on Monday. The more conservative way is to wait for the market to close convincingly above 0.9250 and to enter in the direction of the trend.
Finally the GBPUSD is also showing signs of a bullish trend, but it is rather weak, and side way action might continue in this pair.
USDJPY Daily chart
AUDUSD Daily chart
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