Erste Bank Research Team
Erste Bank
This week, flash estimates for July PMIs delivered the first important reference points regarding economic development in 3Q14. The data shows that the service sector is currently the main growth driver for the Eurozone economy. For Germany, the industry survey data indicates a stable growth pace when compared to 2Q14. Data for the service sector performed better, climbing to a three-year-high and currently indicating growth acceleration for 3Q14. For France, the July poll data declined further and now points towards an accelerating downtrend for France’s industrial production. The survey data for the service sector, however, rose and currently indicates slight growth. With this slow start for 3Q14, the risk of prolonged stagnation for France’s economy has increased. On August 14, the first official data regarding GDP growth in 2Q14 will be published.
For the entire Eurozone, the industry poll data points towards slightly slower growth in 3Q14. The data for the service sector, on the other hand, continues to rise and currently indicates acceleration of growth in 3Q14. Another encouraging sign is the fact that the data indicates an acceleration of growth for peripheral countries. In July, China’s PMI data rose further; given the size of China’s economy, this is a positive sign for global economic development. It is also good news for Germany, given its high export exposure to Asia.
This document is intended as an additional information source, aimed towards our customers. It is based on the best resources available to the authors at press time. The information and data sources utilised are deemed reliable, however, Erste Bank Sparkassen (CR) and affiliates do not take any responsibility for accuracy nor completeness of the information contained herein. This document is neither an offer nor an invitation to buy or sell any securities.
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