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EUR/USD

EURUSD

Bearish retracement continues.

  • EUR/USD keeps on moving lower after the sharp recent upward move. Hourly resistance is given at 1.1616 (12/04/2016 high) while hourly support is located at 1.1370 (29/04/2016 low). Stronger support can be found at 1.1144 (24/03/2016 low). Expected to show further increase within the uptrend channel.

  • In the longer term, the technical structure favours a bearish bias as long as resistance at 1.1746 ( holds. Key resistance is located at 1.1640 (11/11/2005 low). The current technical appreciation implies a gradual increase.

 

GBP/USD

GBPUSD

Weakening.

  • GBP/USD weakens after the lost of two figures earlier this week. Hourly support is given at 1.4444 (05/05/2016 low). Hourly resistance is given at 1.4770 (03/05/2016 high). Stronger resistance is given at 1.4969 (27/12/2016 high). Expected to show further consolidation before entering into another upside move.

  • The long-term technical pattern is negative and favours a further decline towards key support at 1.3503 (23/01/2009 low), as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.5340/64 (04/11/2015 low see also the 200 day moving average). However, the general oversold conditions and the recent pick-up in buying interest pave the way for a rebound.

 

USD/JPY

USDJPY

Bullish pressures are fading.

  • USD/JPY's bullish retracement seems now to stop. Hourly resistance is given at 107.50 (05/05/2015). Stronger resistance can be found at 111.88 (28/04/2016 high). Hourly support lies at 105.55 (03/05/2016 low). Expected to show further weakening.

  • We favour a long-term bearish bias. Support at 105.23 (15/10/2014 low) is on target. A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems now less likely. Another key support can be found at 105.23 (15/10/2014 low).

 

USD/CHF

USDCHF

Stronger volatility.

  • USD/CHF is clearly oriented downwards on the medium-term and has broken multiple supports. Yet, the pair has surged back towards hourly 0.9700. Hourly resistance can be found at 0.9697 (05/05/2016) Hourly support is given at 09444 (03/05/2016 low). Expected to show further further weakening as the medium-term momentum should prevail.

  • In the long-term, the pair is setting highs since mid-2015. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours a long term bullish bias.

 

USD/CAD

USDCAD

Targeting downtrend channel.

  • USD/CAD's bearish momentum is still on despite ongoing bullish retracement. Hourly support is given at 1.2786 (05/05/2016 low) while hourly resistance can be found around 1.2900 (downtrend channel). The volatility is increasing again. Expected to show continued weakness.

  • In the longer term, the pair is now trading well below the 200-day moving average. Strong resistance is given at 1.4948 (21/03/2003 high). Stronger support can be found at 1.1731 (06/01/2015 low).

 

AUD/USD

AUDUSD

Bearish momentum is growing.

  • AUD/USD has broken support at 0.7415 (16/03/2016 low) which confirm growing bearish pressures. Strong daily support is given at 0.7110 (29/10/2016 low). Hourly resistance can be found at 0.7514 (05/05/2016 high). Expected to show further decline in the short-term.

  • In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view. In addition, we still note that the pair is now above the 200-dma which confirms our view that buying pressures are increasing.

 

EUR/CHF

EURCHF

Approaching resistance at 1.1061.

  • EUR/CHF has finally erased 1.1000. Hourly resistance can be found at 1.1061 (17/02/2016 high) while hourly support lies at 1.0955 (29/04/2016 low). Stronger support is given at 1.0863 (23/03/2016 low). Expected to break resistance at 1.1061 in the very-short term.

  • In the longer term, the technical structure remains positive. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

 

EUR/JPY

EURJPY

Targeting long-term downtrend channel.

  • EUR/JPY is still consolidating after recent strong moves. Hourly support can be found at 121.60 (29/04/2016 low) and hourly resistance is given at 123.52 (intraday high). Expected to show continued weakness in the short-term.

  • In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Strong support is given at 118.73 (25/02/2013 low). A key resistance can be found at 141.06 (04/06/2015 high).

 

EUR/GBP

EURGBP

Ready to move towards 0.8000.

  • EUR/GBP keeps on bouncing back from the lower bound of the uptrend channel. For the time being, medium-term upside momentum prevails. Hourly resistance can be found at 0.7988 (18/04/2016 high). Hourly support can be found at 0.7822 (02/05/2016 low). Expected to reach resistance area at 0.8000 within the next few weeks.

  • In the long-term, the pair is currently recovering from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading well above its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.8815 (25/02/2013 high).

 

GOLD (in USD)

Gold

Short-term bearish.

  • Gold is still consolidating after exiting the short-term uptrend channel. Resistance is given at 1303 (02/05/2016 high). Support is given at 1269 (05/05/2016 low). Expected to show a reversal move towards 1300.

  • In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

 

SILVER (in USD)

Silver

Sideways price action.

  • Silver's momentum is clearly positive despite ongoing retracement. Daily resistance is given at 18.00 (02/05/2015 high) while hourly support can be found at 17.24 (04/05/2016 low). Expected to see further monitoring of the resistance at 18.00.

  • In the long-term, the break of the major support area between 18.64 (30/05/2014 low) and 18.22 (28/06/2013 low) confirms an underlying downtrend. Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009). A key resistance stands at 18.89 (16/09/2014 high).

 

Crude Oil (in USD)

Crude Oil

Entering a range-bound pattern.

  • Crude oil is now moving sideways. Yet, the pair is still within a medium-term uptrend channel which is clearly bullish. Hourly support can be found at 42.50 (26/04/2016 low) while resistance lies at 46.78 (29/04/2016 low). The technical structure suggests a further consolidation of the commodity.

  • In the long-term, crude oil is on a sharp decline but is now showing some strong signs of recovery. Strong support lies at 24.82 (13/11/2002) while strong support can be found at 50.96 (10/09/2015 high). Crude oil is holding above its 200-Day Moving Average. Crude oil should recover during this year.

 

This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.

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