Crude Oil - Recovery Continues

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EUR/USD

Failed to break resistance at 1.1068.

• EUR/USD is bouncing back. Yet, the short-term technical structure still suggests a further bearish move. Hourly resistance lies at 1.1068 (26/02/2016 high). Hourly support can be located a 1.0940 (07/03/2016 low) then 1.0810 (29/01/2016 low). Expected to show continued weakness.

• In the longer term, the technical structure favours a bearish bias as long as resistance holds. Key resistance is located region at 1.1453 (range high) and 1.1640 (11/11/2005 low) is likely to cap any price appreciation. The current technical deteriorations favours a gradual decline towards the support at 1.0504 (21/03/2003 low).

GBP/USD

Consolidating.

• GBP/USD's short-term bullish momentum continues. Major resistance is given at 1.4409 (19/02/2016 high). Hourly resistance lies at 1.4284 (07/03/2016 high) while hourly support can be found at 1.4108 (04/03/2016 low). The technical structure suggests further increase as buying pressures are still on.

• The long-term technical pattern is negative and favours a further decline towards key support at 1.3503 (23/01/2009 low), as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.5340/64 (04/11/2015 low see also the 200 day moving average). However, the general oversold conditions and the recent pick-up in buying interest pave the way for a rebound.

USD/JPY

Weakening.

• USD/JPY is declining but remains above 112.00. Strong resistance is given at 114.91 (16/02/2016 high). Hourly support lies at 112.41 (intraday low). Next support lies at 110.99 (11/02/2016 low). Expected to show continued weakness.

• We favour a long-term bearish bias. Support at 105.23 (15/10/2014 low) is on target. A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems now less likely. Another key support can be found at 105.23 (15/10/2014 low).

USD/CHF

Direction-less.

• USD/CHF is definitely trading mixed. An hourly support lies at 0.9879 (04/03/2016 low), while a key support stands at 0.9847 (16/02/2016 low). Hourly resistance is located at 1.0012 (07/03/2016 high). Expected to remain in range around psychological level at 1.0000.

• In the long-term, the pair is setting highs since mid-2015. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours a long term bullish bias.

USD/CAD

Bouncing from year-low.

• USD/CAD's momentum is bearish. Selling pressures are still important. Yet the pair is bouncing back from support at 1.3262 (year-low). Hourly resistance is given at 1.3377 (07/03/2016 high) while stronger resistance can be found at 1.3587 (29/02/2016 high). Expected to show continued weakness.

• In the longer term, the break of the key resistance at 1.3065 (13/03/2009 high) has indicated increasing buying pressures, which favours further medium-term strengthening. Strong resistance is given at 1.4948 (21/03/2003 high). Support can be found at 1.2832 (15/10/2015 low) then 1.1731 (06/01/2015 low).

AUD/USD

Pausing at year-high.

• AUD/USD is still consolidating around its highest level of the year. Strong resistance is given at 0.7485 (07/03/2015 high). Hourly support is given at 0.7397 (07/03/2016 low). Expected to show further consolidation before entering into another upside move.

• In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view. In addition, we still note that the pair is approaching the 200-dma which confirms fading selling pressures.

EUR/CHF

Struggling to reach 1.1000.

• EUR/CHF is fading before reaching 1.1000. Resistance lies at 1.0974 (07/03/2016 high) while hourly support can be found at 1.0810 (29/02/2016 low). Expected to further try to test 1.1000.

• In the longer term, the technical structure remains positive. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/JPY

Declining.

• EUR/JPY's momentum is negative. Hourly resistance can be found at 125.59 (04/03/2016 high). Hourly support is given at 122.11 (01/03/2016 low). Expected to further decline.

• In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Key support at 124.97 (13/06/2013 low) has been broken. Stronger support is given at 118.73 (25/02/2013 low). A key resistance can be found at 141.06 (04/06/2015 high).

EUR/GBP

Trading sideways

• EUR/GBP keeps on trading sideways. The pair remains above hourly support at 0.7691 (02/03/2016 low). Next support lies at 0.7525 (22/01/2016 low). Hourly resistance can be located at 0.7787 (08/03/2016 high). Nonetheless, we think that bullish pressures are still on as long as support at 0.7691 stands

• In the long-term, the technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading well above its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.8066 (10/09/2014 high).

GOLD (in USD)

Bearish consolidation.

• Gold's bullish momentum keeps going despite yesterday's consolidation. Hourly resistance is given at 1279 (04/03/2015 high). Hourly supports lies at 1250 (04/03/2016 low). Expected to show continued strengthening.

• In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

SILVER (in USD)

Lack of follow-through.

• Silver is very volatile, mixing large ups and downs. Hourly resistances are given at 15.80 (12/02/2016 high) & 15.93 (11/02/2016 high). Hourly support can be found at 15.18 (04/03/2016 low).

• In the long-term, the break of the major support area between 18.64 (30/05/2014 low) and 18.22 (28/06/2013 low) confirms an underlying downtrend. Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009). A key resistance stands at 18.89 (16/09/2014 high).

Crude Oil (in USD)

Recovery continues.

• Crude oil continues to move within a rising channel. Hourly resistance is given at 38.99 (09/12/2016 high). Hourly support can be found at 36.09 (07/03/2016 low). A more significant support stands at 35 (rising channel). Expected to see continued strength in the short-term.

• In the long-term, crude oil is on a sharp decline and is of course no showing any signs of recovery. Strong support at 24.82 (13/11/2002) is now on target. Crude oil is holding way below its 200-Day Moving Average (setting up at around 47). There are currently no signs that a reverse trend may happen.

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