Gold – Back Above 1100

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EUR/USD

Moving sideways in the short-term uptrend channel.

• EUR/USD lies in a short-term uptrend channel. Hourly resistance may be found at 1.1096 (28/10/2015 low) while hourly support can be found at 1.0524 (03/12/2015). Expected to show further increase.

• In the longer term, the technical structure favours a bearish bias as long as resistance holds. Key resistance is located region at 1.1453 (range high) and 1.1640 (11/11/2005 low) is likely to cap any price appreciation. The current technical deteriorations favours a gradual decline towards the support at 1.0504 (21/03/2003 low).

GBP/USD

Consolidating.

• GBP/USD is now consolidating after breaking key support at 1.4231 (20/05/2010 low). Hourly resistance is given at 1.5242 (13/12/2015 high). Stronger resistance can be found at 1.5336 (19/11/2015 high). Expected to show further weakness below 1.4000.

• The long-term technical pattern is negative and favours a further decline towards the key support at 1.4231 (20/05/2010 low), as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.5340/64 (04/11/2015 low see also the 200 day moving average). However, the general oversold conditions and the recent pick-up in buying interest pave the way for a rebound.

USD/JPY

Fading before monitoring key support at 115.57.

• USD/JPY is declining. Hourly resistance lies at 123.76 (18/11/2015 high). Hourly support at 116.18 (24/08/2015 low) has been broken but the pair fell to further decline. Expected to show continued weakness.

• A long-term bullish bias is favored as long as the strong support at 115.57 (16/12/2014 low) holds. A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) is favored. A key support can be found at 116.18 (24/08/2015 low).

USD/CHF

Fading momentum.

• USD/CHF's uptrend momentum seems to fade around 1.000 even if the pair remains in the upward channel. Hourly support is located at 0.9876 (14/12/2015 low) while hourly resistance can be found at 1.0125 (05/01/2015 high). Expected to monitor hourly resistance at 1.0125.

• In the long-term, the pair has broken resistance at 0.9448 and key resistance at 0.9957 suggesting further uptrend. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). As long as these levels hold, a long term bullish bias is favoured.

USD/CAD

Consolidating above 1.4500.

• USD/CAD is consolidating even if current momentum seems unstoppable. Hourly support is located far away at 1.4065 (11/01/2016 low). Expected to show further increase toward key resistance at 1.4948 (21/03/2003).

• In the longer term, the break of the key resistance at 1.3065 (13/03/2009 high) has indicated increasing buying pressures, which favours further medium-term strengthening. Strong resistance is given at 1.4948 (21/03/2003 high). Support can be found at 1.2832 (15/10/2015 low) then 1.1731 (06/01/2015 low).

AUD/USD

Weakening.

• AUD/USD is oriented downwards. Hourly support lies at 0.6827 (15/01/2015 low). The technical structure remains clearly negative. Hourly resistance is given at 0.7328 (31/12/2015 high). Expected to show continued weakness.

• In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view. In addition, we still note that the pair remains well below the 200-dma which confirms selling pressures.

EUR/CHF

Gaining momentum to reach 1.1000.

• EUR/CHF is monitoring hourly resistance at 1.0982 (25/09/2015 high). Hourly support lies at 1.0733 (28/08/2015 low). Expected to test again hourly resistance at 1.0982.

• In the longer term, the technical structure remains negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.1002 (02/09/2011 low). The ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/JPY

Weakening.

• EUR/JPY is declining. Hourly resistance lies at 134.60 (04/12/2015 high). Stronger resistance is located at 137.45 (17/09/2015 high). Hourly support at 126.79 (07/01/2016 low) has been broken. The technical structure suggests a further decline toward 126.00.

• In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Key supports stand at 124.97 (13/06/2013 low) and 118.73 (25/02/2013 low). A key resistance can be found at 141.06 (04/06/2015 high).

EUR/GBP

Riding short-term uptrend channel.

• EUR/GBP keeps on rising. The technical structure suggests that there are strong buying interests. Hourly resistance lies at 0.7755 (20/01/2015 high) and hourly support is given at 0.7350 (25/12/2015 low). Expected to show further upside move.

• In the long-term, prices tend to reverse from the underlying declining trend. The general oversold conditions suggest a growing upside momentum. A key resistance at 0.7592 (03/02/2015) has been broken.

GOLD (in USD)

Back above 1100.

• Gold seems to be in a short-term upside move. Yet, the metal is still trading between hourly support at 1046 (03/12/2015 low) and resistance at 1113 (08/01/2016 high). Expect to show continued a deeper upside move.

• In the long-term, the underlying downtrend (see declining channel) continues to favour a bearish bias. A break of the resistance at 1223 is needed to suggest something more than a temporary rebound. A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

SILVER (in USD)

Short-term bullish.

• Silver is trading into a symmetrical triangle. Hourly support is given at 13.64 (14/12/2015 low). Hourly resistance can be found at 14.64 (07/12/2015 high) and still seems far. The overall technical structure suggests that the metal should increase.

• In the long-term, the break of the major support area between 18.64 (30/05/2014 low) and 18.22 (28/06/2013 low) confirms an underlying downtrend. Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009). A key resistance stands at 18.89 (16/09/2014 high).

Crude Oil (in USD)

Continued decline.

• Crude oil keeps on declining at a strong pace despite yesterday's consolidation. The mediumterm technical structure remains clearly negative in a context of oil oversupply. Expected to see continued weakness.

• In the long-term, crude oil is on a sharp decline and is of course no showing any signs of recovery. Strong support at 24.82 (13/11/2002) is now on target. Crude oil is holding way below its 200-Day Moving Average (setting up at around 47). There are currently no signs that a reverse trend may happen.

•  Download Full USD CHF Forecast

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