Crude Oil - Falling Again

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EUR/USD

Trading in range.

• EUR/USD has weakened towards hourly support at 1.0796 (07/12/2015 low). Stronger support lies at 1.0524 (03/12/2015 low). Expected to target resistance at 1.1096.

• In the longer term, the technical structure favours a bearish bias as long as resistance holds. Key resistance is located region at 1.1453 (range high) and 1.1640 (11/11/2005 low) is likely to cap any price appreciation. The current technical deteriorations favours a gradual decline towards the support at 1.0504 (21/03/2003 low).

GBP/USD

Monitoring support at 1.4895.

• GBP/USD's medium-term downside momentum remains lively. The pair is riding the downtrend channel. Hourly resistance is given at 1.5242 (13/12/2015 high). Stronger resistance can be found at 1.5336 (19/11/2015 high). Hourly support can be found at 1.4985 (02/12/2015 low). Expected to monitor support given at 1.4895.

• The long-term technical pattern is negative and favours a further decline towards the key support at 1.5089 , as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.5340/64 (04/11/2015 low see also the 200 day moving average). However, the general oversold conditions and the recent pick-up in buying interest pave the way for a rebound.

USD/JPY

Breaking resistance at 122.23.

• USD/JPY is in a short-term bullish move. Hourly support can be found at 120.07 (28/10/2015 low). Hourly resistance at 122.23 (11/12/2015 high) has been broken. Expected to further consolidate.

• A long-term bullish bias is favored as long as the strong support at 115.57 (16/12/2014 low) holds. A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) is favored. A key support can be found at 116.18 (24/08/2015 low).

USD/CHF

Lack of follow-through.

• USD/CHF is rising toward hourly resistance at 1.0034 (04/12/2015 high). Yet, the technical structure shows a downside momentum. Expected to show further consolidation and decline.

• In the long-term, the pair has broken resistance at 0.9448 and key resistance at 0.9957 suggesting further uptrend. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). As long as these levels hold, a long term bullish bias is favoured.

USD/CAD

Approaching long-term key resistance at 1.4002.

• USD/CAD is targeting again hourly resistance at 1.3781 (14/12/2015 high). Significant support stands at 1.3225 (12/11/2015 low). Expected to show continued bullish momentum as uptrend is still in play.

• In the longer term, the break of the key resistance at 1.3065 (13/03/2009 high) has indicated increasing buying pressures, which favours further medium-term strengthening. Strong resistance is given at 1.4002 (18/05/2004). Support can be found at 1.2832 (15/10/2015 low) then 1.1731 (06/01/2015 low).

AUD/USD

Bouncing back from support at 0.7160.

• AUD/USD is moving sideways. The technical structure, through the symmetrical triangle suggests, that the pair has entered into a downside channel. Hourly support can be found at 0.7160 (intraday high) and hourly resistance at 0.7385 (12/04/2015 high). Expected to show further weakening.

• In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view. In addition, we still note that the pair remains well below the 200-dma which confirms selling pressures.

EUR/CHF

Moving sideways.

• EUR/CHF is trading without no real direction between hourly support at 1.0733 (28/08/2015 low) and hourly resistance at 1.0956 (29/09/2015 high). Expected to show further weakness on the short-term toward 1.0733.

• In the longer term, the technical structure remains negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.1002 (02/09/2011 low). The ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/JPY

Slowly declining

• EUR/JPY is pushing (slowly) lower. Hourly resistance lies at 134.60 (04/12/2015 high). Stronger resistance is located at 137.45 (17/09/2015 high). Hourly support lies at 129.67 (27/11/2015 low). The technical structure still suggests a downside momentum. Expected to show further decline.

• In the longer term, the break of the support at 130.15 validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Key supports stand at 124.97 (13/06/2013 low) and 118.73 (25/02/2013 low). A key resistance can be found at 141.06 (04/06/2015 high).

EUR/GBP

Rising the uptrend channel.

• EUR/GBP is pushing higher. Hourly resistance lies at 0.7301 (15/12/2015 high) and hourly support is given at 0.7164 (07/12/2015 low). The technical structure suggests that an upside momentum may be gaining some traction. Expected to show further increase.

• In the long-term, prices are in an underlying declining trend. The general oversold conditions suggest a limited medium-term downside potential. A key resistance lies at 0.7592 (03/02/2015 high).

GOLD (in USD)

Pausing.

• Gold has paused around 1066. Strong support area is given by the hourly support at 1046 (03/12/2015 low) and by key support at 1044 (05/02/2015 low). Hourly resistance is given at 1110 (06/11/2015 high). Expected to show further weakness.

• In the long-term, the underlying downtrend (see declining channel) continues to favour a bearish bias. A break of the resistance at 1223 is needed to suggest something more than a temporary rebound. A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

SILVER (in USD)

Breaking 14.00 again.

• Silver has bounced above 14.00 unexpectedly on a Fed rate hike. Strong support lies at 13.51 (19/08/2009 low). Hourly resistance can be found at 15.45 (declining channel) seems way too far. Yet, the overall technical structure suggests to see back further weakness toward hourly support at 13.51.

• In the long-term, the break of the major support area between 18.64 (30/05/2014 low) and 18.22 (28/06/2013 low) confirms an underlying downtrend. Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009). A key resistance stands at 18.89 (16/09/2014 high).

Crude Oil (in USD)

Falling again.

• Crude oil weakens again. Hourly support can be found at 34.53 (14/12/2015 low). The mediumterm technical structure is clearly negative in a context of oil oversupply. Expected to show continued weakness.

• In the long-term, crude oil has not shown signs of recovery. Strong support lies at 37.75 (24/08/2015) has been broken and 32.40 (18/08/2015 low) is now on target. Nonetheless, crude oil is holding way below its 200-Day Moving Average (setting up at 50). An very unlikely break of the resistance at 60.72 (05/07/2015) would confirm an underlying uptrend.

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