EUR/USD – Sharp Reversal

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EUR/USD

Sharp reversal.

• EUR/USD has spiked below 1.1000 and has erased the downtrend channel. Hourly support lies at 1.0566 (intraday low). Hourly resistance can be found at 1.1096 (28/10/2015 high). Expected to show further consolidation.

• In the longer term, the technical structure favours a bearish bias as long as resistance holds. Key resistance is located region at 1.1453 (range high) and 1.1640 (11/11/2005 low) is likely to cap any price appreciation. The current technical deteriorations favours a gradual decline towards the support at 1.0504 (21/03/2003 low).

GBP/USD

Reversal.

• GBP/USD's downside momentum remain lively despite the yesterdays' sharp reversal. Hourly resistance is given at 1.5336 (19/11/2015 high). Strong resistance can be found at 1.5529 (22/09/2015 high). Expected to show further weakness.

• The long-term technical pattern is negative and favours a further decline towards the key support at 1.5089 , as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.5340/64 (04/11/2015 low see also the 200 day moving average). However, the general oversold conditions and the recent pick-up in buying interest pave the way for a rebound.

USD/JPY

Trading in range.

• USD/JPY remains between hourly resistance at 123.76 (18/11/2015 high) and hourly support at 122.23 (16/11/2015 low). Expected to monitor support at 122.23.

• A long-term bullish bias is favored as long as the strong support at 115.57 (16/12/2014 low) holds. A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) is favored. A key support can be found at 116.18 (24/08/2015 low).

USD/CHF

Declining sharply.

• USD/CHF has declined sharply. Hourly support is now given at 0.9806 (27/10/2015 low) while hourly resistance is given at 1.0328 (27/11/2015 high). Expected to show further cosnsolidation.

• In the long-term, the pair has broken resistance at 0.9448 and key resistance at 0.9957 suggesting further uptrend. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). As long as these levels hold, a long term bullish bias is favoured.

USD/CAD

Riding the uptrend channel.

• USD/CAD's bullish momentum is still strong but the pair is trading sideways at the moment. Significant support stands at 1.3225 (12/11/2015 low) and resistance lies at 1.3457 (29/09/2015 high). Expected to show continued bullish momentum as uptrend is still in play.

• In the longer term, the break of the key resistance at 1.3065 (13/03/2009 high) has indicated increasing buying pressures, which favours further medium-term strengthening. Support can be found at 1.2832 (15/10/2015 low) then 1.1731 (06/01/2015 low).

AUD/USD

Targeting resistance at 0.7382.

• AUD/USD's bullish momentum is still strong. Hourly support lies at 0.7170 (30/11/2015 low) and hourly resistance is located at 0.7382 (12/10/2015 high). Expected to show increasing buying interest.

• In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view. In addition, we still note that the pair remains well below the 200-dma which confirms selling pressures.

EUR/CHF

Moving inside the uptrend channel.

• EUR/CHF is moving sideways from 1.0950 to 1.0800. Hourly support lies at 1.0733 (28/08/2015 low) while hourly resistance can be found at 1.0982 (25/09/2015 high). Expected to show further weakness.

• In the longer term, the technical structure remains negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.1002 (02/09/2011 low). The ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/JPY

Pushing strongly higher.

• EUR/JP has spiked yesterday and is now consolidating. Hourly resistance at 133.39 (30/10/2015 high) has been broken. Stronger resistance is located at 137.45 (17/09/2015 high). Hourly support lies at 129.67 (27/11/2015 low). Expected to show continued weakness.

• In the longer term, the break of the support at 130.15 validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Key supports stand at 124.97 (13/06/2013 low) and 118.73 (25/02/2013 low). A key resistance can be found at 141.06 (04/06/2015 high).

EUR/GBP

Bounced back at resistance at 0.7249.

• EUR/GBP has also spiked yesterday and the pair has stopped at hourly resistance at 0.7249 (28/10/2015 high). Hourly support is given at 0.6982 (17/11/2015 low). The technical structures has reversed. Expected to show further consolidation.

• In the long-term, prices are in an underlying declining trend. The general oversold conditions suggest a limited medium-term downside potential. A key resistance lies at 0.7592 (03/02/2015 high).

GOLD (in USD)

Bearish momentum still in play.

• Gold keeps on pushing downwards. Hourly support lies at 1044 (05/02/2015 low). Hourly resistance is given at 1110 (06/11/2015 high). Expected to show further weakness.

• In the long-term, the underlying downtrend (see declining channel) continues to favour a bearish bias. A break of the resistance at 1223 is needed to suggest something more than a temporary rebound. A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

SILVER (in USD)

Moving sideways.

• Silver keeps on, as expected, to hold below 14.00. Stronger support is given at 13.51 (19/08/2009 low). Hourly resistance can be found at 15.45 (declining channel) seems way too far. Expected to see further weakness toward hourly support at 13.51.

• In the long-term, the break of the major support area between 18.64 (30/05/2014 low) and 18.22 (28/06/2013 low) confirms an underlying downtrend. Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009). A key resistance stands at 18.89 (16/09/2014 high).

Crude Oil (in USD)

Bearish momentum.

• Crude oil keeps on weakening. Yet the commodity is still within the channel indicating a reversal is possible. Resistance lies at 43.46 (24/11/2015 high) while support lies at 38.52 (26/08/2015). The medium-term technical structure is clearly negative in a context of oil oversupply. Expected to show continued weakness.

• In the long-term, crude oil has not shown signs of recovery. Strong support lies at 37.75 (24/08/2015) and 32.40 (18/08/2015 low). Expect Nonetheless, crude oil is holding way below its 200-Day Moving Average (setting up at 50). Any break of the resistance at 60.72 (05/07/2015) would confirm an underlying uptrend.

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