EUR/USD
The rebound is fading.
EUR/USD has weakened near the hourly resistance at 1.2901. The hourly support at 1.2706 (see also the rising channel) is challenged. Another hourly support can be found at 1.2625 (15/10/2014 low), while a key support stands at 1.2501. An hourly resistance lies at 1.2845 (16/10/2014 high).
In the longer term, EUR/USD is in a downtrend since May 2014. The break of the strong support area between 1.2755 (09/07/2013 low) and 1.2662 (13/11/2012 low) has opened the way for a decline towards the strong support at 1.2043 (24/07/2012 low). As a result, the recent strength in EUR/USD is seen as a countertrend move. A key resistance stands at 1.2995 (16/09/2014 high).
Given yesterday's move, we need to work on a new short strategy.
Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD
Will it be able to make a higher high?
GBP/USD has bounced sharply near the key support at 1.5855. However, prices have thus far failed to invalidate their succession of lower highs. As a result, monitor the resistance at 1.6227. Hourly supports lie at 1.6030 (17/10/2014 low) and 1.5942 (16/10/2014 low). Another resistance stands at 1.6287.
In the longer term, the collapse in prices after having reached 4-year highs has created a strong resistance at 1.7192, which is unlikely to be broken in the coming months. Despite the recent short-term bearish momentum, we favour a temporary rebound near the support at 1.5855 (12/11/2013 low). A key resistance lies at 1.6525.
Await fresh signal.
USD/JPY
Buying interest remains strong.
USD/JPY has weakened near the resistance at 107.59 (see also the 50% retracement). However, yesterday's large lower shadow indicates strong short-term buying interest. An hourly support can be found at 106.14 (17/10/2014 low). Another resistance lies at 108.74.
A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) holds. Despite the recent decline near the major resistance at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high), a gradual move higher is eventually favoured. Another resistance can be found at 114.66 (27/12/2007 high). A key support lies at 105.44 (02/01/2014 high).
Await fresh signal.
USD/CHF
Improving.
USD/CHF continues to improve since 15 October. The short-term declining trendline has been broken and the resistance at 0.9491 has been breached. Another resistance stands at 0.9562. An hourly support lies at 0.9441 (intraday low), while a more significant support is at 0.9368.
From a longer term perspective, the technical structure favours a full retracement of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. As a result, the recent weakness is seen as a countertrend move. A key support can be found at 0.9301 (16/09/2014 low). A resistance now lies at 0.9691 (06/10/2014 high).
Await fresh signal.
USD/CAD
The support at 1.1217 is challenged.
USD/CAD is challenging the support at 1.1217 (see also the rising channel). A decisive break of this level would weaken the technical structure. An hourly resistance can be found at 1.1296, while a key resistance stands at 1.1385. Another support lies at 1.1161.
In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. The recent move above the resistance at 1.1279 (20/03/2014 high) confirms this bullish outlook. Strong supports can be found at 1.1072 (02/10/2014 low) and 1.0811 (29/08/2014 low).
Await fresh signal.
AUD/USD
Moving sideways.
AUD/USD is moving within the horizontal range defined by the key support at 0.8643/0.8660 (24/01/2014 low) and the key resistance at 0.8897. An hourly resistance lies at 0.8837 (intraday high), whereas an hourly support can be found at 0.8734.
In the long-term, the underlying trend is negative. Despite the recent successful test of the strong support at 0.8660 (24/01/2014 low), the long-term technical structure favours further decline. A key resistance stands at 0.9112 (16/09/2014 high). Another strong support lies at 0.8067 (25/05/2010 low).
Await fresh signal.
GBP/JPY
Consolidating below the resistance at 173.32.
GBP/JPY has thus far failed to break the resistance at 173.32 (see also the 38.2% retracement), suggesting a weakening shortterm bullish momentum. Hourly supports can be found at 171.25 (intraday low) and 170.21. Another resistance lies at 175.01.
In the long-term, the trend is positive as long as the strong support area between 169.51 (11/04/2014 low) and 167.78 (18/03/2014 low) holds. However, the sharp reversal near the psychological threshold at 180.00 and the fading 200-day moving average indicate a weakening trend.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/JPY
Weakening near the resistance at 137.07.
EUR/JPY has weakened near the hourly resistance at 137.07 (10/10/2014 high). The hourly support at 135.76 (17/10/2014 low) is challenged, while a key support stands at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low). A key resistance stands at 137.95.
The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the key support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. However, the break of the support at 135.73 and the declining slope of the 200-day moving average signal a weakening long-term trend. A resistance can be found at 141.23 (19/09/2014 high).
Await fresh signal.
EUR/GBP
Bearish breakout of the support area between 0.7906 and 0.7900.
EUR/GBP has failed to break the strong resistance area between 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) and 0.8066 (10/09/2014 high). The support area between 0.7906 (14/10/2014 low) and 0.7900 has been broken, confirming increasing selling pressures. Another support can be found at 0.7850 (10/10/2014 low). An hourly resistance lies at 0.7942.
In the longer term, the underlying downtrend favours a test of the major support area between 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low) and 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low) at minimum. A decisive break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/CHF
Remains weak.
EUR/CHF is trying to bounce near the low of its rising channel. However, the rise has thus far been unimpressive. Hourly resistances stand at 1.2080 (15/10/2014 high) and 1.2093. Horizontal supports can be found at 1.2053 (30/09/2014 low) and 1.2045.
In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is unlikely to be broken. As a result, further sideways moves are expected in the medium-term.
Await fresh signal.
GOLD (in USD)
Approaching the resistance at 1258.
Gold continues to bounce and is now approaching the resistance at 1258 (09/09/2014 high). The short-term momentum is positive as long as the hourly support at 1232 holds. An initial support can be found at 1241 (intraday low). A key resistance lies at 1277.
In the long-term, despite the successful test of the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low), the underlying downtrend and the recent 4-year lows in silver favour an eventual break lower. The resistance at 1277 (04/09/2014 high) is likely to cap any rebound in prices. Other supports can be found at 1157 (28/07/2010 low) and 1045 (05/02/2010 low).
Await fresh signal.
SILVER (in USD)
Recent succession of higher lows intact thus far.
Silver continues to move sideways between the support at 17.06 and the resistance at 17.74 (26/09/2014 high), despite the recent highs made by gold. An initial support lies at 17.34 (intraday low). A key resistance stands at 18.00 (23/09/2014 high).
In the long-term, the break of the major support area between 18.64 (30/05/2014 low) and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) confirms an underlying downtrend and favours further decline towards the strong support at 14.64 (05/02/2010 low). A resistance lies at 18.88 (09/09/2014 low).
Await fresh signal.
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
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