AUD/USD - Challenging its strong support at 0.8660

EUR/USD

Challenging a strong support area.

• EUR/USD has broken the strong support at 1.2755 and is now challenging the one at 1.2662. The short-term momentum is negative as long as prices remain below the hourly resistance at 1.2901 (23/09/2014 high). An initial resistance can be found at 1.2816 (22/09/2014 low).

• In the longer term, EUR/USD is in a succession of lower highs and lower lows since May 2014. The strong support area between 1.2755 (09/07/2013 low) and 1.2662 (13/11/2012 low) is challenged. An eventual break lower is expected. A resistance lies at 1.2995 (16/09/2014 high). Another strong support lies at 1.2043 (24/07/2012 low).

Sell stop 2 units at 1.2652, Obj: Close 1 unit at 1.2507, remaining at 1.2155, Stop: 1.2710.

GBP/USD

Weakening.

• GBP/USD is weakening after its recent rebound from the low at 1.6052. A test of the hourly support at 1.6162 (16/09/2014 low) is favoured. Hourly resistances can be found at 1.6342 (intraday high) and 1.6416.

• In the longer term, the collapse in prices after having reached 4-year highs has created a strong resistance at 1.7192, which is unlikely to be broken in the coming months. Monitor the recent rebound as it could signal the start of a medium-term consolidation phase. A support lies at 1.6052, while a strong support stands at 1.5855 (12/11/2013 low). A resistance stands at 1.6644.

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Pushing higher.

• USD/JPY has broken to the upside out of its horizontal range defined by the hourly support at 108.26 (23/09/2014 low) and 109.46 (19/09/2014 high). Monitor the major resistance at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high). A first hourly support can be found at 109.19 (intraday low).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) holds. The recent new highs confirm a strong underlying bullish trend. A break of the major resistance at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high, see also the 50% retracement from the 1998's top) is eventually favoured. Another resistance can be found at 114.66 (27/12/2007 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Pushing higher.

• USD/CHF has broken the strong resistance at 0.9456. Friday's strength has alleviated shortterm concerns stemming from Thursday's shooting star. Hourly supports can be found at 0.9452 (25/09/2014 low) and 0.9433 (18/09/2014 high).

• From a longer term perspective, the technical structure favours a full retracement of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. Then break of the strong resistance at 0.9456 (06/09/2013 high) confirms this scenario. Another key resistance lies at 0.9751 (09/07/2013 high). Supports can be found at 0.9301 (16/09/2014 low) and 0.9176 (03/09/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Challenging the top of its rising channel.

• USD/CAD continues to move higher and is now challenging the top of its rising channel. Hourly supports can be found at 1.1084 (intraday low) and 1.1053 (24/09/2014 low). Further gradual strength towards the strong resistance at 1.1279 is favoured.

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Challenging its strong support at 0.8660.

• AUD/USD continues its steep decline and is now close to its strong support at 0.8660. Hourly resistances can be found at 0.8826 (intraday high) and 0.8927 (23/09/2014 high).

• In the long-term, the underlying trend is negative. Monitor the test of the strong support at 0.8660 (24/01/2014 low). Another strong support lies at 0.8067 (25/05/2010 low).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

Pausing.

• GBP/JPY made a sharp bearish intraday reversal at 180.72 (19/09/2014 high), which is likely to cap prices in the short-term. However, the significant daily lower shadow made on 23 September suggests persistent buying interest. Monitor the horizontal range defined by the hourly support at 176.65 (23/09/2014 low) and 178.74 (23/09/2014 high).

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further long-term strength. However, the failure to hold above the resistance at 179.17 (see also psychological threshold at 180.00) favours a phase of consolidation. Other resistances can be found at 183.98 (50% retracement of the 2007-2009 decline) and 197.45. Strong supports lie at 172.99 (16/09/2014 low) and 169.51 (11/04/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

Bouncing near the support at 138.47.

• EUR/JPY is bouncing near the support at 138.47 (15/09/2014 low, see also the 50% retracement). Hourly resistances stand at 139.70 (25/09/2014 high) and 140.22. Another support lies at 137.67.

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. The break of the strong resistance at 140.09 (09/06/2014 high) has improved the medium-term technical structure. A resistance can be found at 142.47 (29/04/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Remains weak.

• EUR/GBP is close to the strong support at 0.7755. The short-term technical structure is negative as long as prices remain below the hourly resistance at 0.7889 (23/09/2014 high). An initial resistance lies at 0.7851 (24/09/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the underlying downtrend favours a test of the major support area between 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low) and 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low) at minimum. A decisive break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Weakening.

• Weakening. EUR/CHF is moving sideways between the support at 1.2045 and the resistance at 1.2121 (15/08/2014 high). Monitor the test of the hourly support at 1.2064 (22/09/2014 low). An hourly resistance can be found at 1.2091.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future. As a result, further sideways moves are expected in the mediumterm.

Await fresh signal.

GOLD (in USD)

Consolidating.

• Gold has thus far successfully tested its recent low and support at 1208 (22/09/2014 low). However, a break of the hourly resistance at 1236 is needed to invalidate the short-term bearish trend. Other resistances can be found at 1243 (16/09/2014 high) and 1258.

• In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured. The recent break to the downside out of the symmetrical triangle confirms this scenario.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Holding thus far its recent low at 17.34.

• Silver has thus far successfully tested the hourly support at 17.34. A break of the resistance at 18.02 is needed to validate a short-term base formation. An initial resistance can be found at 17.74 (26/09/2014 high).

• In the long-term, the break of the major support area between 18.64 (30/05/2014 low) and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) confirms an underlying downtrend. A strong support can be found at 14.64 (05/02/2010 low). A resistance lies at 18.88 (09/09/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.