EUR/USD
Intraday bullish reversal?
EUR/USD is in an underlying downtrend. However, monitor the support at 1.3367 implied by yesterday's intraday bullish reversal (hammer formation). Hourly resistances can be found at 1.3444 (28/07/2014 high) and 1.3485 (24/07/2014 high).
In the longer term, EUR/USD is in a succession of lower highs and lower lows since May 2014. The downside risk implied by the double-top formation (1.3379) has been met. However, another downside risk is given by 1.3210 (second leg lower after the rebound from 1.3503 to 1.3700). A strong support stands at 1.3296 (07/11/2013 low). A key resistance lies at 1.3549 (21/07/2014 high).
Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD
Challenging its rising channel.
GBP/USD has broken the key support at 1.6923. However, prices are now close to the support implied by its rising channel (see also the 61.8% retracement). Coupled with the overextended decline and the underlying uptrend, we favour a rebound in the next few days. Hourly resistances can be found at 1.6955 (30/07/2014 high) and 1.7001 (see also the declining channel).
In the longer term, the break of the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high) calls for further strength. Resistances can be found at 1.7332 (see the 50% retracement of the 2008 decline) and 1.7447 (11/09/2008 low). A key support stands at 1.6693 (29/05/2014 low).
Buy stop 2 units at 1.7008, Obj: Close 1 unit at 1.7167, remaining at 1.7435, Stop: 1.6943.
USD/JPY
Surging higher.
USD/JPY surged higher yesterday, breaking the resistance area defined by 102.27 (03/07/2014 high) and 102.36. Prices are now challenging the key resistance at 103.02. An hourly support stands at 102.36 (previous resistance).
A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 99.57 (19/11/2013 low) holds. However, a break to the upside out of the current consolidation phase between 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) and 103.02 is needed to resume the underlying bullish trend. A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).
Await fresh signal.
USD/CHF
Moving higher.
USD/CHF continues to move higher, as can be seen by the break of the resistance at 0.9082 (03/02/2014 low). A key resistance stands at 0.9156. Hourly supports can be found at 0.9065 (30/07/2014 low) and 0.9035 (28/07/2014 low).
From a longer term perspective, the bullish breakout of the key resistance at 0.8953 (04/04/2014 high) suggests the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The long-term upside potential implied by the double-bottom formation is 0.9207. Furthermore, the break of the resistance at 0.9037 calls for a second leg higher (echoing the one started on 8 May) with an upside potential at 0.9191. A strong resistance stands at 0.9156 (21/01/2014 high).
Await fresh signal.
USD/CAD
Impulsive move to the upside.
USD/CAD continues to rise sharply. Monitor the test of the key resistance at 1.0961 (see also the 50% retracement). Hourly supports can be found at 1.0860 (intraday low) and 1.0845 (intraday low).
In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.
Await fresh signal.
AUD/USD
Bearish reversal pattern likely in place.
AUD/USD has breached the key support at 0.9319. As a result, the range from 0.9319 to 0.9505 is likely a bearish reversal pattern, whose downside risk calls for a test of the strong support at 0.9206. An hourly resistance now lies at 0.9355 (intraday high). Another resistance can be found at 0.9390 (intraday high).
In the longer term, prices are consolidating within the range defined by the key support at 0.9206 and the key resistance at 0.9461 (10/04/2014 high)/0.9505. A decisive break of the support at 0.9319 would call for a test of the low of the range.
Yesterday's sharp whipsaw has stopped our short position.
Our short position has been stopped.
GBP/JPY
Pickup in buying interest.
GBP/JPY has finally displayed a strong daily real body. The pickup in buying interest after days of equilibrium calls for further short-term strength. An hourly resistance now lies at 174.22 (30/07/2014 high), while a more significant resistance stands at 174.57. An hourly support can be found at 173.59 (previous resistance).
In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support at 167.78 (18/03/2014 low) holds.
Long 2 units at 173.69, Obj: Close 1 unit at 175.24, remaining at 179.80, Stop: 173.00 (Entered: 2014-07-30).
EUR/JPY
Bouncing.
EUR/JPY has broken the resistance at 137.34, confirming short-term exhaustion in selling pressures. However, prices need to break the resistance at 138.45 to invalidate the current declining channel. An hourly resistance lies at 137.83 (50% retracement), whereas an hourly support can be found at 137.34 (previous resistance).
The bearish breakout of the 200 day moving average confirms a deterioration of the mediumterm technical structure. A key support stands at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low), while a strong resistance lies at 104.09 (09/06/2014 high).
The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/GBP
Monitor the resistance area around 0.7940.
EUR/GBP remains close to the resistance area defined by the declining channel (around 0.7929) and 0.7940. Another resistance lies at 0.7981 (see also the declining trendline). A break of the initial support at 0.7904 (28/07/2014 low) is needed to suggest the end of the recent rebound. Another hourly support stands at 0.7874.
In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low) and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). Another strong support stands at 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/CHF
Bullish breakout at 1.2166.
EUR/CHF has broken the resistance at 1.2166, confirming an improving technical structure. The resistance at 1.2178 is challenged. The doublebottom formation favours a further rise towards the resistance at 1.2200. Hourly supports can now be found at 1.2166 (previous resistance) and 1.2160 (30/07/2014 low).
In the longer term, prices are moving in a broad horizontal range between the key support at 1.2104 and the resistance at 1.2261.
In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.
Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).
GOLD (in USD)
Short-term succession of lower highs remains intact.
Gold remains in a succession of lower highs since the peak at 1345. An hourly resistance can be found at 1311 (23/07/2014 high). Another resistance stands at 1325. A support area lies between 1288 (24/07/2014 low) and 1285.
In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.
Await fresh signal.
SILVER (in USD)
Monitor the declining channel.
Silver remains close to the resistance area defined by the declining channel (around 20.72) and 20.82. Another resistance lies at 21.26. Supports can be found at 20.31 and 20.00.
In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the successful test of the strong support area between 18.84 and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.41 (24/02/2014 high) indicate clear exhaustion in the selling pressures. A key resistance stands at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).
Await fresh signal.
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
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