Hopes for a Greece Deal Boost Equities

Economic Data

- (IE) Ireland Apr Property Prices M/M: 0.6% v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 15.8% v 16.8% prior
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e May 22nd: -1.6 v -1.5% prior
- (US) Goldman Economist: Chain Store Sales w/e May 22nd w/w: -0.4%; y/y: +3.0%
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e May 22nd: +1.6% y/y, May MTD: -0.3%; May YTD: +1.8%
- (BE) Belgium May Business Confidence: -4.9 v -5.7e
- (BR) Brazil Apr Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): 3.06T v 3.076Te; M/M 0.1% v 1.2% prior
- (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) left its main interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, as expected

US and European equities are bouncing higher this morning after yesterday's big losses. Yesterday Greece seemed hopeless, while today progress is possibly being made. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.60%, the S&P500 is up 0.60% and the Nasdaq is up 0.87%.

G7 finance ministers are meeting in Dusseldorf for several days this week and today the meeting is generating market-moving headlines regarding Greece. Just after the open of US cash equity trading, there were reports that a Greece official said Greece and its creditors have begun putting together a "staff level" agreement, including long-term solutions to debt and pension issues. Within an hour, European officials clarified that they are not yet drafting a final accord and that plenty of difference among the parties to the negotiations remain. During the European session, EUR/USD was around 1.0930, and the pair took a round trip to 1.0820 and back again on clashing Greece headlines.

The ECB left Greece's ELA limit unchanged at its current level of €80.2 billion for the first time since February. This follows reports over recent days of a significant increase in deposit outflows from Greek banks over fears of capital controls, as well as talk that ECB officials are getting uncomfortable with the bank's exposure to Greece.

Shares of luxury retailers are in focus this morning after earnings reports. TIF is up nearly 12% after widely beating revenue and earnings expectations. Note that Tiffany's earnings and revenue were lower on a y/y basis, and global comps fell 1%. KORS is down 20% on very weak guidance for its first quarter and full year. Comps were down 1.7%. Kors had plenty of positive comments about its future expansion, but investors were not impressed. Luxury watch name Movado is down 4% despite largely inline quarterly results. In other earnings, homebuilder Toll Brothers lost a few percent after the firm trimmed its FY15 forecasts and revenue missed expectations.

As things get worse for McDonalds, the company disclosed this morning that it would stop reporting monthly same-store sales results. The company will provide same-store sales for June with Q2 earnings report, then cease providing the data.

Looking Ahead

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 5-Year Notes
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Apr Retail Sales M/M: +1.1%e v -1.8% prior (revised from -1.9%); Retail Trade Y/Y: +5.5%e v -9.7% prior; Large Retailers' Sales: +9.1%e v -13.0% prior
- 22:00 (PH) Philippines Q1 GDP Q/Q: 1.4%e v 2.5% prior; Y/Y: 6.6%e v 6.9% prior