April Begins With Equity Declines

Economic Data

- (IE) Ireland Mar Live Register Monthly Change: -4.7K v -4.3K prior; Unemployment Rate: 10.0% v 10.1% prior
- (RO) Romania Mar International Reserves: $34.3B v $34.1B prior
- (ZA) South Africa Mar Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: 0.0% v 1.1% prior
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Mar 27th: +4.6% v +9.5% prior
- (CZ) Czech Mar Budget Balance (CZK): 19.9B v 22.6B prior
- (BR) Brazil Feb Industrial Production M/M: -0.9% v -1.5%e; Y/Y: -9.1% v -10.1%e
- (US) Mar ADP Employment Change: +189K v +225Ke
- (BR) Brazil Mar Manufacturing PMI: 46.2 v 49.6 prior (2nd straight contraction and lowest since Sept 2011)
- (CA) Canada Mar RBC Manufacturing PMI: 48.9 v 48.7 prior
- (US) Mar Final Markit Manufacturing PMI: 55.7 v 55.3e
- (US) Feb Construction Spending M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e
- (US) Mar ISM Manufacturing: 51.5 v 52.5e; Prices Paid: 39 v 38.0e
- (US) DOE Crude: +4.77M v +4.5Me; Gasoline: -4.26M v -1.0Me; Distillate: +1.33M v -0.5Me;

Some weak US data out this morning undercut equities and sent the 10-year yield down six basis points to 1.862%. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.54%, the S&P500 is off 0.42% and the Nasdaq is down 0.63%.

Both the ADP employment and the ISM manufacturing reports for March were weaker than expected. ADP saw its lowest reading since January 2014. Virtually all the new positions came from the service sector, with the majority of those concentrated in small business. The ISM manufacturing index fell to its lowest level in nearly two years and marked its fifth month of m/m declines.

The API crude inventories registered their third consecutive build, while the DOE report registered its 12th straight build in inventories. But with China data looking better and Iran nuclear talks ending inconclusively, crude prices are up today, with WTI stabbing back toward the $50 handle and Brent back around $56.

Yet another round of funding talks between Greece and its European partners ended inconclusively yesterday. This morning Der Spiegel reported Greece was threatening to defer payment of €450M IMF loan that is due on April 9th if it didn't get funding. This would constitute a big breach of Greece's commitments. Greek officials denied the story, but the stress isn't helping today. Trading in EUR/USD has been pretty choppy all morning, ranging from 1.0720 to 1.080.

Fiat Chrysler recorded its 60th straight month of US sales gains in March while Ford, Nissan and General Motors saw sales contract. Toyota's sales gained a strong 4.9% y/y in the month, while GM was down 2%, Nissan dropped 2.7% and Ford fell 3.4%. Given the bad weather, analysts had projected that overall sales volume would fall for the first time in more than a year.

Simon Property Group ended its hostile bid for Macerich after its deadline for a deal had passed. Two weeks ago SPG had raised its offer to $95./shr from $91/shr and given Macerich an April 1 deadline to respond. The new offer was valued at $23.2 billion counting debt.

GoDaddy's long-delayed IPO went down this morning. GoDaddy sold 22 million shares, and the name opened for trade up more than 30% at $6.15/shr, generating around $440 million for the company and valuing it around $4.5 billion.

Looking Ahead

- 12:00 (IT) Italy Mar New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v 13.2% prior
- 12:00 (IT) Italy mar Budget Balance: No est v -€7.2B prior
- 14:00 (MX) Mexico Mar IMEF Manufacturing Index (Seasonally Adj): 51.0e v 50.7 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index (Seasonally Adj): 50.0e v 49.6 prior
- 14:00 (BR) Brazil Mar Trade Balance: -$0.4Be v -$2.8B prior; Total Exports: $16.5Be v $12.1B prior; Total Imports: $16.9Be v $14.9B prior
- 20:30 (AU) Australia Feb Trade Balance: -A$1.3Be v -A$980M prior