Another Pharma Merger Monday

Economic Data

- (PT) Portugal Feb Retail Sales M/M: -1.2 v 6.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.3% prior
- (PT) Portugal Feb Industrial Production M/M: -0.4 v +1.6%; Y/Y: -1.0% v -1.3% prior
- (PT) Portugal Feb Unemployment Rate: 14.1% v 13.9% prior
- (DE) Germany Mar CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: 0.6% v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.0% prior
- (BR) Brazil Mar FGV Inflation IGPM M/M: 1.0% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.1%e
- (DE) Germany Mar Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.3%e
- (DE) Germany Mar Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.0%e
- (US) Feb Personal Income: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Personal Spending: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Inflation Adjusted Personal Spending: -0.1% v +0.1%e
- (US) Feb PCE Deflator M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.3%e
- (US) Feb PCE Core M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.3%e
- (CA) Canada Feb Raw Materials Price Index M/M: 6.1% v 4.5%e; Industrial Product Price M/M: 1.8% v 1.9%e
- (US) Feb Pending Home Sales M/M: 3.1% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 12.0% v 8.7%e
- (US) Mar Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: -17.4 v -9.0e

European markets closed at their highs and US equities are tearing higher on the final day of March trading. PBoC Chief Zhou made dovish comments yesterday, helping the Shanghai Composite zoom out to a seven-year high, and Yellen's remarks on Friday are being interpreted as "dovish." As of writing, the DJIA is up 1.50%, the S&P500 is up 1.00% and the Nasdaq is up 0.86%.

The Iran nuclear talks continue down to the wire this morning. Press reports suggest that Iran's negotiators tried to back away from making commitments to ship their atomic fuel out of the country, although US officials said the issue would not derail talks, although there were separate reports that Russia Foreign Minister Lavrov left the negotiations. Later reports suggest the talks are still doing well, but there is little in the way of hard news on the issue out this morning. Brent is heading back toward last week's lows, around $55.40 as of writing, while WTI is around $48.

The impact of the shale oil crash is showing up in broader economic measures. The latest manufacturing index from the Dallas Fed plunged in March to -17.4 from -11.2 in February, indicating deteriorating business conditions in the state. The reading was the lowest since June 2011. After some mixed housing data over the last two weeks, today markets are scrutinizing a surprisingly strong February pending home sales report. The homebuilders are broadly higher on the positive data.

Another Monday brings another round of pharma sector deal making. UnitedHeath subsidiary OptumRx struck a deal to acquire pharmacy benefit manager Catamaran Corporation for $61.50/share in cash, for a total deal valued at $12.8 billion. Teva entered a deal to acquire orphan drug developer Auspex for $101/shr in cash, valuing the firm around $3.2 billion. Note that shares of Mylan are down about 4% this morning as many analysts had expected Teva to spring for its generics rival rather than Auspex.

Looking Ahead

- 13:30 (BR) Brazil Feb Central Govt Budget Balance (BRL): -2.0Be v +10.4B prior
- 16:30 (MX) Mexico Feb YTD Budget Balance (MXN): No est v -91.5B prior
- 17:45 (NZ) New Zealand Feb Building Permits M/M: No est v -3.8% prior
- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Feb Industrial Production M/M: +0.7%e v -3.7% prior; Y/Y: -2.5%e v +1.8% prior
- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Feb Cyclical Leading Index Change: No est v 1 prior
- 19:05 (UK) Mar GfK Consumer Confidence: 2e v 1 prior
- 19:15 (US) Fed Vice Chair Fischer on monetary stability in Georgia