Consumer sentiment reaches pre financial crisis levels

Economic Data

• (ZA) South Africa Q2 GDP Q/Q Annualized: 0.6% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.2%e
• (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales w/e Aug 22nd: w/w +0.6%; y/y: 4.2%
• (BR) Brazil Aug FGV Construction Costs M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e
• (HU) Hungary Central Bank (NBH) left Base Rate unchanged at 2.10%, as expected (1st pause in 26 meetings)
• (US) July Durable Goods Orders: 22.6% v 8.0%e; Durables Ex Transportation: -0.8% v +0.5%e; Durables Ex-Defense: +24.9% v 2.7% prior
• (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Aug 22nd: 4.0% y/y, Aug MTD: 0.5% m/m; Aug MTD:4.2% y/y
• 09:00 (US) Jun FHFA House Price Index M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Q/Q: 0.81% v 3.2%e
• (US) Jun S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City M/M: -0.20% v 0.00%e; Y/Y: 8.10% v 8.30%e; Home Price Index: 172.33 v 172.84e
• (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves: €213.3B v €213.1B prior
• 09:30 (BR) Brazil July Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): 2.84T v 2.830T prior; Outstanding Loans M/M: 0.2% v 0.9% prior; Private Banks Lending (BRL): 1.34T v 1.340T prior; Personal Loan Default Rate: 6.6% v 6.5% prior
• (US) Aug Consumer Confidence Index: 92.4 v 89.0e
• (US) Aug Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 12 v 6e

- US stock markets opened higher with the S&P testing 2000 for the second straight day. Investors largely ignored the noisy durable goods data which saw the headline boosted by a large seasonal uptick in plane orders. With many stock markets holding near historic highs and rates slogging along at multiyear lows here, and historic lows in Europe, August US consumer confidence hit the highest levels since Oct of 2007. Trading remains relatively thin and geopolitical headlines continue to be monitored closely for any potential momentum swings. Putin and Poroshenko are meeting in Minsk amid low expectations for any type of breakthrough. Reports are also surfacing out the Middle East indicating Palestinian and Israeli officials may have agreed on a longer term truce framework to end the latest Gaza crisis.

- Burger King Worldwide Inc. confirmed it has stuck a deal to buy Tim Hortons Inc. for about $11 billion. Both stocks continue to experience upside momentum after Warren Buffett got involved in financing the takeover. Berkshire Hathaway has committed $3 billion of preferred equity financing. 3G Capital will own about 51% of the new company. Berkshire, which previously joined with 3G to buy H.J. Heinz & Co. in 2013, won't have any participation in the management and operation of the business.

- Best Buy shares opened down 4% after reporting better than expected earnings on improving profitability in the second quarter. Unfortunately revenues were short of analyst expectations while SSS decline 2% on weakness in consumer electronics, mobile phones in particular.

- DSW appears to have a strong foothold in the US shoe market. Second quarter earnings and sales handily topped analysts' estimates resulting in raised FY14 guidance across the board. Shares rallied more than 15% on the news.

- USD is still consolidating its post Jackson Hole symposium gains during the NY morning as dealers noted that it could be 'overbought' on a technical basis. Nonetheless the EUR bounce remained limited as fallout from the Draghi dovish tone from Jackson Hole reverberated as UK participants returned from their extended weekend. European peripheral yields continued to move lower with both Italy and Spain 10-year bonds at fresh record lows.

Looking Ahead

All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)

• 11:00 (UR) Ukraine to sell 2-Year, 5-year and 7-year Bonds
• 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.00-2.50B in Notes
• 11:15 (BR) Brazil to sell I/L 2019, 2023, 2030, 2040 and 2050 Bonds
• 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
• 13:00 (US) (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 2-Year Notes
• 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
• 17:00 (KR) South Korea Aug Consumer Confidence: No est v 105.0 prior
• (US) Arizona Holds Primary Elections
• (US) Florida Holds Primary Elections
• (US) Vermont Holds Primary Elections