EUR/AUD 4H Chart: Channel Down

USD/NOK 1H Chart: Rising Wedge

Comment: The US Dollar has been recently outperforming the Krone, but we must note that the downside risks are quickly increasing. This is shown by the pattern the currency pair is forming, namely a rising wedge, a figure that usually portends a reversal. For now we are bullish on USD/NOK, but as soon as the rate returns to the Jun 5 high at 8.00, there will be an increased possibility of a bearish break-out soon afterwards. The main target in this case will be a demand zone between 7.81 and 7.79, created by the weekly pivot point, 200-hour SMA, and Jun 25 low. As for the sentiment, the SWFX traders are undecided right now, being that 53% of open positions are long and 47% are short.

EUR/AUD 4H Chart: Channel Down

Comment: For the time being EUR/AUD is trading within the boundaries of a bearish channel. Accordingly, we expect the currency pair to bounce off the nearby resistance trend-line and pursue an encounter with the lower trend-line at 1.4350.

However, even though the signals are weak, there are a few indicators that are currently pointing north. If the sell-off is not triggered and the price closes above 1.4650, there is likely to be an attempt to attack a dense supply area between 1.4750 and 1.4700, which is implied by the Jun 22 high and monthly R2. In the meantime, most SWFX market participants are holding short Euro positions, namely 62% of them.