USD/CAD 4H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: Considering the recent behaviour of USD/CAD, the currency pair is likely forming a bearish channel, even though the upper edge of the pattern is yet to be confirmed. Right now the US Dollar is supposed to move upwards, but the gains should be limited by the falling trend-line at 1.2250, which is reinforced by the weekly R1 and monthly PP levels. From here the price will be expected to fall through the Apr 29 low towards 1.18. In case 1.2250 fails as a ceiling, additional supply area is at 1.2370, represented by the weekly R2 and 200-period SMA. Meanwhile, most the SWFX market participants prefer to be short the Greenback, namely 62% of them.
USD/PLN 4H Chart: Falling Wedge
Comment: Yesterday we noted that USD/PLN might be forming a channel. Looking at the bigger picture, it does seem that there might be actually a falling wedge pattern emerging on the chart. What will decide which pattern is going to develop further is a test of the support at 3.37. If it holds and triggers a rally beyond 3.61, then we should expect an eventual breach of the red trend-line. On the other hand, if the bears push through the support line at 3.57, this will confirm the bearish outlook, and the price will be set to decline to 3.52. Consulting the SWFX traders, a majority of them (67.5%) considers the second scenario as more likely, being that they are currently holding short positions.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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