EUR/NZD 4H Chart: Channel Down

USD/SGD 1H Chart: Channel Up

Comment: Although the technical indicators at the moment do not favour a bullish scenario, our outlook on USD/SGD is bullish. We expect a rebound from 1.3960, where the lower boundary of the emerging channel merges with the 200-hour SMA.

In the meantime, it might prove difficult for the pair to overcome 1.4070, and not because of the Oct 29 high, but because of the 200-period SMA in the four-hour chart. Above 1.4070 we will target the Oct high at 1.4366. In case the price dips beneath 1.3960, the first major support will be at 1.3924 (weekly S1), followed by the Oct 26 high at 1.39, but the sell-off may well extend down to 1.3835 (weekly S2 and Oct 23 low).

EUR/NZD 4H Chart: Channel Down

Comment: At the moment EUR/NZD is consolidating just above 1.6225, but eventually the currency pair is expected to erode the tough support level. This will pave the way towards 1.5819, namely the lower boundary of the bearish channel.

However, the longer-term technical indicators are mostly pointing upwards, meaning we should not rule out a bullish break-out. If the price closes above 1.6450, the first target will be the monthly PP and weekly R2 at 1.6670, followed by the Oct 21 high at 1.6955 and 200-period SMA at 1.71. Meanwhile, the sentiment in the SWFX market is distinctly bearish, being that 60% of open positions are short.

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