Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
GBP/AUD 4H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: Two weeks ago GBP/AUD bottomed out near the August low, and since then the currency pair has been forming a bullish channel. One of the major resistances, namely the 200-period SMA, has already been broken, which strengthens the case for a further rally. In the near term, however, we are likely to see a downward correction, but the decline should be limited by the rising support line at 2.1270/40. As for the next month’s target, this is considered to be a solid resistance level at 2.2110, represented by the September high. In the meantime, a dip under 2.1270/40 will imply a sell-off down to the October 12 low at 2.08. The SWFX sentiment is bearish: 66% of open positions are short.
EUR/TRY 4H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: We hold a negative bias with respect to EUR/TRY, mainly because of the major resistance area between 3.45 and 3.49. Moreover, the currency pair has already formed a bearish channel. However, we should recognise some bullish potential in the short run—the price may rise up to 3.29/3.27, but further advancement is unlikely due to the monthly S1 and falling resistance trend-line. In case this supply area is breached, potential ceilings will be at 3.33 (200-period SMA) and at 3.38/3.37 (Oct 14 high and monthly PP). Meanwhile, we see no significant supports below the spot. The closest potential reversal point is as far as 2.87/2.85, represented by the July and May lows.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.