EUR needs a fundamental boost to get above 1.1050, if no any further downside is expected

EUR has closed last week at 1.1000 level, currently it trades a little below it but we have a good support at 1.0960-80 area where is the Daily Senkou Span B price of the negative cloud. This serves as a strong support line. I do not expect this to be broken easily because this week's economic data not seem much dollar positive. Today is a non-working day in Germany, UK and USA, and some other countries and the markets will remain closed, so i expect low volatility and tiny range moves for today. On tuesday US durable goods orders and consumer confidence will be released and expectations are for worse than previous data. This may help the EUR to recover quick above 1.1050. Upside move will be fully restored once above 1.1200. Indicators on Daily are mostly bearish but the downside speed has decreased significantly and with a little fundamental help we may recover to the upside soon. However on H4 things seem worse for the bulls.We are currently below the SMA200 support at 1.1000 and all other indicators point to south. If later today or tomorrow we are not able to break above 1.1040-50 then it is quite possible to test and break the 1.0960 support. Weekly close below 1.0950 will put the EUR in a free fall state and set the target at 1.0500. Weekly upside target is now limited by 1.1515.

GOLD returned back close to 1200 despite the good start last Monday. We have a support area 1198-1201 and the metal is consolidating above it now. Still there are not indications for a downside drop ahead but you need to remember that below 1215 GOLD may drop further to test 1191 for example. A Daily close above 1215 will give much comfort to bulls and we may test 1222-1228 which is the weekly resistance area too.

NZD performed badly the whole last week and returned back to 0.7300 from 0.7390. It is good to know that below 0.7330 all H4 indicators are bearish. 0.7390 is the reversal point. If we succeed to break above it then bulls will take control of the pair. Until this happens we are in a consolidation to bearish move between 0.7280 and 0.7380.

AUD also dropped below the support 0.7850 which last week seemed good. AUD is truing to gain control over that lost support level which now is resistance. Above 0.7815 the upside recovery attempts will continue. And below that you may expect some further drop to 0.7750 for example where is the Daily Senkou Span B price level.

JPY gave up finally and with the end of the positive Daily Ichimoku cloud we have a good upside jump to test the 122.00 again. Currently we are very close to it as the pair trades at 121.65. Indicators on all time frames are positive and the pair is bullish. We have now a good support at 120.20 and i do not think we shall go below that soon. Weekly reversal point is 118.80, once below and we shall tartget 117.00 and 115.00 levels again.

GBP continues to fail staying above 1.5600. It is currently at the 1.5470 support and a drop below may test the 1.5340. We need to break above 1.5610 to restore upside move again. We have a range trade between 1.5465 and 1.5565. Indicators here are flat and give no information of further direction but i think despite the pair looks bearish it will recover to the upside, but this is just what i think i do not promise you to happen like that. Please, take your own decisions!

RUB preforms good and still doesn't allow the dollar to break above 50.00. Tests below 49.00 live short and this seems to show that dollar bulls are not likely to give up and also they will try to break above 50.50 in the days ahead. However we have a strong resistance at 51.50 which is not going to be broken easily. So you may consider 51.50 as a good Weekly resistance.

For today:

SHORT EUR below 1.1000 SL1.1015 TP 1.0965-1.0940-1.0885-1.0855-1.0825

LONG EUR above 1.1045 SL 1.1030 TP 1.1100-1.1165-1.1200-1.1270-1.1315

LONG GOLD above 1198 SL 1195 TP 1211-1215-1222-1226-1232

SHORT GOLD below 1192 SL 1195 TP 1178-1172-1166-1154-1151

Good luck!

P.S. You can find me on Facebook - search for [email protected] or write directly to this e-mail