Vladimir Mihaylov
Independent Analyst
EUR continues consolidation below 1.1000, but Daily indicators are turning to bullish, H4 ones are bullish also, and we have a huge potential of making a sharp move higher which may reach 1.1240 and 1.1530 so be very careful when leaving opened positions through the weekend, huge gaps are possible. Correction is needed and this can happen by the end of this month or beginning of May. First signal will be breaking of 1.0930, and this will be confirmed if we have a break of 1.1000. We have only one intermediate resistance at 1.1150. The pair is supported on Daily at 1.0740-50, then 1.0570. For now i do now i do not expect to drop below the last.
GOLD is at the Daily Senkou Span A support price of the negative cloud at 1182. Seems the metal is going to follow the curves of that support line and moves will be more bearish as long as the price is below 1196 resistance. You may enter long above 1202 for 1224. Above 1228 we shall target 1234 and then 1251-1260. Above this upside will be fully restored.
NZD still cannot succeed to stay above 0.7700. The pair uses the good support at 0.7580 to start recovery, however everybody is careful here ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision on Thursday. It is good to know that the reversal support is at 0.7410. Strong resistance is placed at 0.7820.
AUD is trying to break the negative cloud. Any dollar weakness may help to reach 0.7920-30 resistance area, but we will need more of the same to progress further. The pair is supported by 0.7735-50 support which is the starting point for the current recovery attempt. Any drop below 0.7680 will reverse the bullish outlook.
JPY consolidates ahead of the BoJ rate decision this week and the dollar still keeps hopes for another upside. However it has to deal with 119.90-120.00 first, then 120.70. We have support at 118.50. If we do not succeed to break above 121.00 for the next 2 weeks the pair is going to drop to 117.50 and below.
GBP has started a high speed recovery and is currently forming a 'flag' formation on Daily breaking the negative cloud. We have a new support area here 1.5140-70 above which the pair is strongly bullish. For the last 2 weeks the pair progressed above 600 pips to the upside. Reversal point is 1.5000.
RUB continues to press the dollar to the downside. We are currently at the 48.80-49.80 wide support area which is the last dollar's hope for anything bullish. Below 53.10 the pair is bearish, only above 54.00 we may hope for a test of 57.00. For now i think the chances for this are less than bearish scenario.
For today:
LONG EUR above 1.0830 SL 1.0815 TP 1.1025-1.1080-1.1120-1.1240-1.1460-1.1520
SHORT EUR below 1.0700 SL 1.0720 TP 1.0550-1.0460
LONG GOLD above 1176 SL 1173 TP 1190-1195-1200-1208-1216-1224
SHORT GOLD below 1175 SL 1178 TP 1166-1158-1151-1146-1132
Good luck!
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