Vladimir Mihaylov
Independent Analyst
EUR is currently below the Daily resistance of 1.2720, we have two more resistance levels to break after that - they are 1.2735 and 1.2760. Above the last the upside will be fully restored and you may enter LONG. We have the FOMC meeting on Wednesday so i expect some EUR recovery ahead, but not above 1.2900 before the meeting. Weekly, Daily and H4 indicators are turning to the upside so this tells me that some recovery is possible. If we break 1.2900 resistance too then the recovery may extend above 1.3000.
Today we have the Germany's IFO data and tomorrow the US durable goods orders and also the US consumer confidence, which may prevent the EUR from rising. It is quite difficult to forecast the future move of the pair before FOMC meeting but for now indicators show that recovery to 1.2860-1.2960 is more likely than a drop to 1.2540. Daily support is 1.2670, below that we shall target 1.2620 and finally 1.2540.
GOLD is locked in a 10 USD range between 1226 and 1236. To extend the upside recovery we need a Daily close above 1246. Downside may restore below 1218, so be careful and exit long-s below that level. H1, H4 and Daily indicators point to the downside, others are mixed. It is quite possible to test support levels first before any upside attempt.
NZD maintains the bearish outlook only the Daily indicators show a possible upside recovery with resistances 0.7900 and 0.7940 finally 0.8000 where the price will become under a heavy downside pressure.
AUD has started a recovery from 0.8800, so you may enter LONG above 0.8810 with a tight SL 10-15 pips. Add to LONG on a clear break of 0.8840. Daily support is at 0.8770, the first resistance comes at 0.8850-60 and then at 0.8900. Weekly upside target is 0.9000.
JPY has returned some of the last Thursday losses as the dollar became some king uncertain ahead of this week's FOMC. First support is at 107.60 and the second one is at 107.10. Below the second one a downside reversal may appear, so be careful. Upside will continue once the price is above 108.20.
GBP is also trying to start an upside recovery, the pair is bullish above 1.6090 with the first resistance at 1.6120, followed by the 1.6170. If we have a Daily close above the second the upside will gain more power and will continue to 1.6230. Any drop below 1.6060 will look for support near 1.6020 and if that is broken too, the downside will be restored and bears will take the price below 1.6000 again.
RUB continues to loose price against the dollar, but the pair is in a stand-by mode since Friday. Daily and Weekly indicaotrs are heavy bullish while smaller ones are mixed. Seems that the pair will try a little more upside before any correction. The pair is bullish above 41.90. correction may appear if we droop below 41.70
For today:
LONG EUR above 1.2715 SL 1.2700 TP 1.2740-1.2770-1.2810-1.2840
SHORT EUR below 1.2660 SL 1.2670 TP 1.2630-1.2610-1.2585-1.2550
SHORT GOLD below 1224 SL 1227 TP 1218-1214-1208-1202
LONG GOLD above 1228 SL 1225 TP 1232-1236-1244-1250
Good luck!
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