Marc Nemenoff
PRICE Futures Group
Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 3 higher at 153’12, 10 Yr. Notes 1 lower at 125’20 and 5 Yr. Notes 1 lower at 118’04.5. We continue to hold the long 5 Yr./short 10 Yr. Note spread and the long June 2016/short June 2017 Eurodollar spread. Over the last couple of sessions the 5 Yr/10 Yr. spread has narrowed by 9 points in our favor to 7’15 premium the 10 Yr. My near term objective is for this spread to continue to narrow to the 7’08 level at which point I will consider taken profits or at the very least determine a a price on the spread where I will have a “mental stop”, i.e. a level at which I will exit if the spread starts to widen.
Grains: Mar. Corn is currently 1’0 higher at 363’4, Mar. Beans 3’0 higher at 868’6 and Mar. Wheat 3’0 higher at 478’6. I remain spread long KC Wheat/short Chicago Wheat currently at 3’0 premium Chicago with the expectation that the spreade will eventually go premium the KC Wheat. I do want to note that the Grains had a nice rally off of recent lows mid session yesterday.
Cattle: Live and Feeder Cattle closed lower yesterday but are still 200-400 points higher since my last letter, dated 12/22/2015, of which I recommended the short side of Feb. LC above the 131.25 level. I am still short but will use a sharp break from current levels to cover the position and stand aside.
Silver: Mar. Silver is currently 5 cents lower at 13.88 and Feb. Gold fractionally higher at 1068.00. A break in Crude Oil and a strong Dollar are still dominating these markets causing sell offs because of deflationary fears. I must be honest and admit that this has been a poor year to be long and I stubbornly continue to hold a small long position feeling that the Dollar will eventually retreat.
S&P's: Mar. S&P’s are currently 5.50 lower at 2067.25. Treat as a trading affair.
Currencies: As of this writing the Mar. Euro is currently 15 lower at 1.0946, the Yen 8 lower at 0.8313 and the Pound 27 lower at 1.4804. I am still recommending the long side of the Yen on breaks (either futures or the Mar. 85.00 call). I am on the sidelines in the Pound trying to find a reason to go long.
NATURAL GAS: If you went long on my recommendation in the 1.85-1.90 area either take profits (currently at 2.25) or use a close stop.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee, or implication by or from The Price Futures Group, Inc. that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited whatsoever. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purpose and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.