USD/CHF: Challenging the support at 0.8903

EUR/USD

Challenging the resistance at 1.3739.

• EUR/USD is close to the key resistance at 1.3739. Hourly supports are given by 1.3657 (intraday low) and the short-term rising channel (around 1.3635). Another resistance can be found at 1.3819.

• Monitor the medium-term horizontal range between the support at 1.3477 and the resistance at 1.3739.

• In the longer term, we favour a broad horizontal range between 1.3296 (07/11/2014 low) and 1.3893 (27/12/2013 high). A first key support is given by the 200 day moving average (around 1.3406).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Yesterday's daily shooting star favours short-term caution.

• GBP/USD has broken the key resistance at 1.6668 (24/01/2014 high). However, yesterday's bearish reversal (shooting star) suggests a shortterm exhaustion of the buying interest. A break of the support at 1.6693 would confirm a weakening trend and call for a deeper correction. Another support can be found at 1.6600. A resistance now stands at 1.6823.

• In the longer term, the technical structure favours a bullish bias as long as the support at 1.6220 (17/12/2013 low) holds. The decisive break of the resistance at 1.6668 opens the way for a move towards the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high). However, a sustainable move above that level is unlikely in the next few weeks.

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Improving.

• USD/JPY is improving as can be seen by the break of the hourly resistance implied by the short-term declining trendline. Monitor the test of the resistance at 102.70 (11/02/2014 high). A key resistance stands at 103.44. Hourly supports can be found at 102.17 (intraday high) and 101.25.

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support area given by the 200 day moving average (around 100.21) and 99.57 (see also the rising trendline from the 93.79 low (13/06/2013)) holds. A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Buy limit 2 at 101.89, Obj: Close unit 1 at 103.35, remaining at 104.68, Stop: 101.193

USD/CHF

Challenging the support at 0.8903.

• USD/CHF has thus far successfully tested the support at 0.8903. A break of the hourly resistance at 0.8949 is needed to suggest something more substantial than a dead cat bounce. Other resistances are given by the declining trendline (around 0.9003) and 0.9038. Another support lies at 0.8860.

• From a longer term perspective, the structure present since 0.9972 (24/07/2012) is seen as a large corrective phase which has potentially reached completion. The support area defined by 0.8931 (24/02/2012 low) and 0.8833 favours a potential medium-term base formation. A key resistance stands at 0.9250.

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Challenging the support at 1.0954.

• USD/CAD is trying to form a short-term base near the support at 1.0954. A break of the hourly resistance at 1.0999 (17/02/2014 high) is needed to negate the short-term bearish trend. Other resistances can be found at 1.1026 and 1.1091 (11/02/2014 high), whereas another support lies at 1.0843.

• In the longer term, the decisive break of the major resistance at 1.0870 validates a multi-year basing formation whose minimum upside potential is around 1.1910. A first resistance is given by the 50% retracement of the decline from the September 2009 peak at 1.3065 (around 1.1236).

Buy stop 2 at 1.1006, Obj: Close unit 1 at 1.1185, remaining at 1.1665, Stop: 1.0936

AUD/USD

Challenging the key resistance at 0.9086.

• AUD/USD is challenging the key resistance at 0.9086. Given the other key resistance at 0.9168 (02/12/2013 high), the upside potential seems limited. An initial support lies at 0.9016 (intraday low). Hourly supports stand at 0.8928 (13/02/2014 low) and 0.8874 (05/02/2014 low).

• The long-term technical pattern is negative and favours a further decline towards the key support at 0.8067 (25/05/2010 low), as long as prices remain below the resistance at 0.9168 (02/12/2013 high, see also the 200 day moving average).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

Short-term exhaustion nearby?

• GBP/JPY's short-term technical structure remains positive as long as the initial support at 169.13 (14/02/2014 low) holds. However, the current inability to hold above the resistance at 171.47 suggests a short-term fading buying interest. An initial support lies at 169.91 (17/02/2014 low). Resistances are given by the declining trendline (around 172.17) and 173.66.

• The break of the major resistance at 163.09 calls for further long-term strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The longterm technical structure remains supportive as long as the key low at 154.73 (09/10/2013 low) holds.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

Moving higher.

• EUR/JPY has broken its recent consolidation, favouring further short-term strength. Resistances stand at 141.26 and 142.42. Hourly supports stand at 139.50 (intraday low) and 138.68 (12/02/2014 high).

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 131.15 (08/10/2013 low) holds, despite the break of the key support at 138.43 (04/12/2013 low). Another key support lies at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low, see also the 200 day moving average). A resistance lies at 147.04 (16/09/2008 low).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Bouncing.

• EUR/GBP is trying to bounce near the support at 0.8160 (see below). However, the short-term structure is negative as long as prices remain below the hourly resistance at 0.8227 (14/02/2014 high). Another resistance lies at 0.8280 (06/02/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the technical structure remains negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 0.8350 (13/01/2014 high). Monitor the support implied by the 61.8% retracement (of the 2012-2013 rise) at 0.8160. Another key support can be found at 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Extending its bounce.

• EUR/CHF has thus far successfully tested the hourly support at 1.2205 (05/02/2014 low). As a result, the break of the initial resistance at 1.2229 (intraday high) has validated a short-term base formation, opening the way for a new test of the key resistance at 1.2255. Another support can be found at 1.2185 (03/02/2014 low).

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term. We generally favour further longer term upside for EUR/CHF towards the psychological threshold at 1.3000. A key support lies at 1.2120 (26/02/2013 low).

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23)

GOLD (in USD)

Monitor the short-term overextended rise.

• Gold has broken the resistance implied by its 200 day moving average. However, monitor the initial support at 1314 (intraday low) as the current rise is overextended (see rising channel). Hourly supports stand at 1300 (14/02/2014 low) and 1284 (12/02/2014 low). An hourly resistance now lies at 1333 (intraday high).

• Longer term, the successful test of the key support at 1181 coupled with the break of the resistance implied by the 200 day moving average are positive. However, we are skeptical of a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, we remain cautious given the current overextended rise. A key resistance stands at 1362.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Fading near the resistance at 22.07.

• Silver has broken the key resistance at 20.52, moving out of a three month horizontal range. The implied target at 22.12 has almost been reached. Monitor the recent weakness near the resistance at 22.07 (06/11/2013 high). Hourly supports can be found at 21.15 (intraday low) and 20.71 (intraday low).

• In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the potential higher low at 18.84 (31/12/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.52 suggest a phase of stabilisation. A key resistance now stands at 23.09.

Await fresh signal.