AUDUSD: Challenging its recent lows

EUR/USD

Near a significant support area.

• EUR/USD has significantly declined for the last two sessions. However, a key support area can be found between 1.2662 (13/11/2012 low) and 1.2797. Hourly resistances can be found at 1.2869 (intraday low) and 1.2932 (see also the declining channel).

• In the medium-term, the rise from 1.2746 (04/04/2013 low) is viewed as a corrective phase within a larger downtrend. Therefore, we eventually expect to see prices moving below the key support at 1.2662 (13/11/2012 low). However, the short-term oversold conditions suggest that a break to the downside without a prior rebound is unlikely.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Approaching the 2013 low at 1.4832.

• GBP/USD has sharply declined for the last two sessions. The support at 1.5009 has been broken. Monitor the key support at 1.4832. The short-term technical configuration remains negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.5130 (03/07/2013 low). An initial resistance can be found at 1.5028 (intraday low).

• In the longer-term, the break of the horizontal range defined by the strong support at 1.5235 (13/01/2012 low) and the strong resistance at 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high) calls for a further medium-term decline. However, monitor the support at 1.4832 (12/03/2013 low) given the increasing short-term oversold conditions.

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Making new highs.

• USD/JPY continues to rise, breaking its recent high at 100.86. Other resistances are at 101.80 (30/05/2013 high) and 102.59. Hourly supports can be found at 100.46 (intraday high, see also the rising trendline) and 99.26 (03/07/2013 low).

• The medium-term overextended nature of this market calls for some caution. However, the sharp rise from the low at 93.79 suggests a strong buying interest. A move towards the resistance area between 102.59 and 103.74 is likely to occur before mid-July (upper house elections).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Moving higher.

• USD/CHF has surged higher for the last two sessions. The resistance at 0.9625 has been broken. A key resistance lies at 0.9791. Hourly supports can be found at 0.9608 (intraday low) and 0.9546 (intraday low, see also the low of the rising channel).

• In the longer-tern, a medium-term sideways move between the key supports at 0.9022 (01/02/2013 low) and 0.8931 (24/02/2012 low) and the key resistances at 0.9972 (24/07/2012 high) and 1.0067 (01/12/2010 high) is expected. The new phase of strength underway has been confirmed by the break of the resistance at 0.9521.

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

The resistance at 1.0556 has been broken.

• USD/CAD has broken the key resistance at 1.0556. However, another strong resistance lies at 1.0658. Hourly supports are at 1.0512 (05/07/2013 low) and 1.0472 (04/07/2013 low).

• In the longer-term, the technical improvements call for a test of the key resistance at 1.0870 (02/11/2009 high, see also the long-term declining trendline from the October 2002 peak). We favour a medium-term bullish bias as long as the support at 1.0137 (14/06/2013 low, see also the rising trendline from 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) in a daily chart) holds. An initial key support lies at 1.0424 (27/06/2013 low).

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Challenging its recent lows.

• AUD/USD continues to remain volatile with its downward trend. Monitor the test of the support at 0.9037. Hourly resistances can be found at 0.9190 (03/07/2013 high) and 0.9253 (01/07/2013 high).

• In the medium-term, the break of the strong support at 0.9388 (04/10/2011 low) opens the way for a further medium-term decline. The break to the downside out of the long-term symmetrical triangle (see the daily chart) suggests a move towards 0.8236. Key supports are at 0.8771 and 0.8067. A significant resistance now lies at 0.9345 (26/06/2013 high).

Sell stop 3 at 0.9033, Objs: 0.8987/0.8820/0.8332, Stop: 0.9079.

GBP/JPY

Bouncing.

• GBP/JPY has broken the support at 151.26 and its short-term rising trendline. Monitor the support at 149.26. Hourly resistances can be found at 151.26 (previous support) and 153.02.

• In the longer-term, we favour a further rise towards the strong resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009) as long as the key support area between 146.46 (16/04/2013 low) and 145.88 (15/03/2013 high) holds. We do not expect a break of this resistance in the coming months though.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

Moving sideways.

• EUR/JPY has thus far failed to break the key resistance at 131.41. Monitor the hourly range between the support at 128.65 and the resistance at 130.27. • Monitor the horizontal range between 124.94 and 133.80. A failure to break the resistance at 131.41 could indicate a potential medium-term bearish head and shoulders formation.

• In the longer-term, we favour a further rise towards the strong resistance at 139.22 (05/06/2009 high) as long as the support at 124.94 (16/04/2013 low) holds. We do not expect a break of this resistance in the coming months though.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Challenging the strong resistance at 0.8637.

• EUR/GBP has broken the resistance at 0.8599 and is challenging the strong resistance at 0.8637 (17/04/2013 high). A short-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the hourly support at 0.8598 (intraday low) holds. Another support lies at 0.8561 (intraday low).

• From a longer-term perspective, the recent inability to make any significant new lows below the support at 0.8411 and the break of the shortterm declining trendline favour a base formation. Despite the successful test of the resistance at 0.8637 (17/04/2013 high), the succession of higher lows since April favours a bullish bias.

Buy stop 3 at 0.8641, Objs: 0.8675/0.8776/0.8990, Stop: 0.8607.

EUR/CHF

Grinding higher.

• EUR/CHF has bounced near its support at 1.2284. We continue to see the recent price action as a base formation. The hourly resistance at 1.2383 is challenged. Another resistance lies at 1.2430. Hourly supports can be found at 1.2334 and 1.2284.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term. We generally favour further longer-term upside for EUR/CHF towards the psychological threshold at 1.30.

Long 3 at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD

Weakening.

• Gold's bounce is fading near the hourly resistance at 1269. The hourly supports at 1237 (03/07/2013 low) and 1226 (01/07/2013 low) have been broken. Supports are now at 1209 (05/07/2013 low) and 1181. An hourly resistance can be found at 1244 (intraday high, see also the hourly declining trendline).

• In the longer-term, we favour a bearish bias as long as a capitulation or a proper base formation has not occurred. A long-term downside risk is likely given by the key support area between 1045 (05/02/2010 low) and 1027 (29/10/2009 low). A first support is given by 1157 (28/07/2012 low).

Await fresh signal.

SILVER

Drifting lower.

• Silver's bounce is fading. Supports can be found at 18.72 (05/07/2013 low) and 18.23. Hourly resistances are at 19.42 (intraday high) and 19.94 (03/07/2013 high).

• In the medium-term, the downside risk implied by the break of the strong support at 26.07 (26/09/2011 low) is 18.13. A key support can be found at 17.06 (05/05/2010 low).

Await fresh signal.