EUR/USD
The resistance at 1.2998 has been broken.
EUR/USD has broken its resistances at 1.2998 (22/02/2013 high) and is challenging the one at 1.3051. Another resistance lies at 1.3194. Hourly supports can be found at 1.3006 (intraday high) and 1.2919 (intraday low).
In the medium-term, the recent price action from 1.2746 (04/04/2013 low) is viewed as a corrective phase within a larger downtrend. The recent break of the resistance at 1.3029 (14/05/2013 high) suggests a longer horizontal consolidation before an eventual move lower.
Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD
Short-term double-bottom formation.
GBP/USD has validated a double-bottom formation with an upside potential at 1.5298. Resistances can be found at 1.5281 (20/05/2013 high) and 1.5331 (14/05/2013 high). Hourly supports are at 1.5197 (intraday low) and 1.5099 (intraday low).
In the longer-term, the break of the horizontal range defined by the strong support at 1.5235 (13/01/2012 low) and the strong resistance at 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high) calls for a further medium-term decline. Therefore, the rise from 1.4832 is viewed as a rebound. A key resistance can be found at 1.5606 (01/05/2013 high, see also 50% retracement).
Await fresh signal.
USD/JPY
The recent low at 100.67 is challenged.
USD/JPY is still challenging the support at 100.67. Other supports can be found at 99.95 and 98.58. Hourly resistances are at 101.80 (30/05/2013 high, see also the declining channel) and 102.59.
The overextended nature of this market calls for some caution. However, as long as the support at 95.77 (05/04/2013 low) holds, further long-term strength towards 110.66 (15/08/2008 high) is favoured. We do not expect a break of this resistance in the coming months though.
Await fresh signal.
USD/CHF
Challenging the key support at 0.9521.
USD/CHF has broken the hourly support at 0.9578 and is now challenging the key support at 0.9521. Another support can be found at 0.98476. Hourly resistances are at 0.9654 (intraday high) and 0.9720 (intraday high).
USD/CHF has broken its resistance area between 0.9567 and 0.9636 (28/08/2012 high). A medium-term rise towards the strong resistance area between 0.9972 (24/07/2012 high) and 1.0067 (01/12/2010 high) is expected. The recent weakness from 0.9839 is seen as a short-term correction. Monitor the test of the key support at 0.9521 (14/05/2013 low).
Await fresh signal.
USD/CAD
Approaching the support at 1.0286.
USD/CAD declined yesterday and is now close to the support at 1.0286 (23/05/2013 low). Hourly resistances are at 1.0331 (intraday low) and 1.0388 (30/05/2013 high). Another support can be found at 1.0217.
In the longer-term, we favour a bullish bias as long as the support at 1.0000 (14/02/2013 low, see also the rising trendline from 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) in a daily chart) holds. Key resistances are now at 1.0447 (04/06/2012 high) and 1.0658 (04/10/2011 high).
Await fresh signal.
AUD/USD
Fading thus far close to the resistance at 0.9696.
AUD/USD is bouncing close to the strong support at 0.9582. However, the hourly resistance at 0.9696 (28/05/2013 high) has thus far capped the upside potential. A key resistance lies at 0.9843 (21/05/2013 high). Hourly supports can be found at 0.9583 (30/05/2013 low) and 0.9528.
In the longer-term, the break to the downside out of the long-term symmetrical triangle (see the daily chart) favours a move below the strong support area defined by 0.9582 (01/06/2012 low) and 0.9388 (04/10/2011 low).
We favour a longer short-term rebound. However, we do not want to miss the next move lower, hence our current short strategy.
Sell stop 3 at 0.9382, Objs: 0.9358/0.8811/0.8332, Stop: 0.9406.
GBP/JPY
Moving sideways.
GBP/JPY is moving sideways between the support at 151.79 and the resistance at 154.76. The symmetrical triangle (continuation pattern) favours a short-term bearish bias. Other supports can be found at 150.75 and 149.98.
In the longer-term, further strength towards the key resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009) is likely as long as the key support at 146.46 (16/04/2013 low) holds. We do not expect a break of this resistance in the coming months though.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/JPY
Moving sideways.
EUR/JPY is currently moving between the support at 129.97 and the resistance at 132.57. However, the short-term succession of lower highs since the 22 May (see also the continuation pattern given by the hourly symmetrical triangle) favours a short-term bearish bias. Another resistance can be found at 133.80, whereas another support lies at 128.98.
In the longer-term, EUR/JPY has moved above its key resistance at 127.92 (05/04/2010 high). Further long-term strength towards the strong resistance at 139.22 (05/06/2009 high) is likely as long as the support at 124.94 (16/04/2013 low) holds. We do not expect a break of this resistance in the coming months though.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/GBP
The support at 0.8532 has held thus far.
EUR/GBP is still moving within a tight horizontal range defined by the support at 0.8532 (23/05/2013 low) and the resistance at 0.8597. Another supports can be found at 0.8470 (20/05/2013 high), whereas another resistance is at 0.8637.
Given the recent short-term horizontal range, we are updating our long strategy.
From a longer-term perspective, the recent inability to make any significant new lows below the support at 0.8411 and the break of the shortterm declining trendline favour a base formation. Indeed, a double-bottom formation could be underway with support at 0.8411 and resistance at 0.8602/0.8637.
Buy stop 3 at 0.8602, Objs: 0.8645/0.8776/0.8990, Stop: 0.8559.
EUR/CHF
Weakening.
EUR/CHF remains under the negative influence of the daily bearish engulfing pattern made on 29 May. An hourly support can be found at 1.2407 (24/05/2013 low), while a key support lies at 1.2386. Hourly resistances can be found at 1.2493 and 1.2573.
In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term. We generally favour further longer-term upside for EUR/CHF towards the psychological threshold at 1.30.
Long 3 at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).
GOLD
Challenging the resistance at 1420.
Gold is likely in a short-term rebound following its bullish engulfing pattern made on 20 May (in a daily chart). Monitor the test of the resistance at 1420 (10/05/2013 low). Another resistance can be found at 1450. The short-term momentum remains positive as long as the support at 1397 (intraday low) holds. Another support lies at 1374 (28/05/2013 low).
In the medium-term, gold has confirmed a weakening bias by breaking to the downside out of its long-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1523 (29/12/2011 low) and the resistance at 1803 (08/11/2011 high). The implied medium-term downside risk is 1287. A key support is at 1308 (28/01/2011 low).
Await fresh signal.
SILVER
.Moving sideways.
Silver is moving sideways after its 20 May selling climax. Monitor the horizontal range between the support at 21.99 and the resistance at 23.29 (see also the short-term declining trendline). The initial resistance at 22.72 has been broken. An initial support can be found at 22.53 (intraday low).
In the medium-term, the downside risk implied by the break of the strong support at 26.07 (26/09/2011 low) is 18.13. A support can be found at 19.48 (15/07/2008 high).
Await fresh signal.
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