GBP/USD: Challenging a strong support area

EUR/USD

Consolidating.

• EUR/USD is moving sideways between the support at 1.3249 (11/01/2013 low) and the resistance at 1.3404. We favour a break to the upside. A key resistance is at 1.3487 (24/02/2012 high).

• The higher low in July 2012 (compared to July 2010) and the recent new high above the strong resistance at 1.3172 suggest an improvement of the underlying trend. Strong resistances can be found at 1.3487 and 1.4247 (27/10/2011 high).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Challenging a strong support area.

• GBP/USD is challenging its key support area between 1.5829 (15/11/2012 low) and 1.5755 (28/08/2012 low). In the short-term, the decline is overextended, suggesting that a rebound is likely. An hourly resistance is at 1.5893 (21/01/2013 high).

• GBP/USD is moving in a long-term horizontal range defined by the strong support at 1.5235 (13/01/2012 low) and the strong resistance at 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high).

Long 3 at 1.5842, Objs: 1.5953/1.6079/1.6290, Stop: 1.5731 (Entered: 2013-01-21).

USD/JPY

Correcting.

• USD/JPY is weakening but remains in a succession of higher lows and higher highs. Hourly supports are given by the short-term rising trendline (around 88.40) and 87.79.

• USD/JPY has validated a long-term bullish trend reversal formation by breaking the strong resistance at 85.53 (06/04/2011 high). The first long-term objective is the key resistance at 94.99 (04/05/2010 high). Another key resistance can be found at 101.45 (06/04/2009 high).

Long 3 at 88.78, Objs: 89.88/92.79/94.48, Stop: 87.68 (Entered: 2013-01-22).

USD/CHF

Key resistance at 0.9383 intact thus far.

• USD/CHF has thus far failed to break its key resistance at 0.9383 (see also the high of the declining channel). Hourly supports are at 0.9286 (16/01/2013 low) and 0.9218 (intraday low).

• The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) has invalidated the succession of higher lows that started in August 2011. The lower low made on 20 December 2012 confirms a bearish bias. A medium-term decline towards the key support at 0.8931 (24/02/2012 low) is expected.

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Moving towards the high of its horizontal range.

• USD/CAD continues to move within its shortterm horizontal range between 0.9825 and 0.9973. The recent sharp move and the current mild correction favour a move towards the high of this range. An hourly support can be found at 0.9910 (21/01/2013 low).

• The underlying trend is negative (see mediumterm declining channel in the daily time frame). Therefore, we see the rise from 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) as a countertrend move. A test of the support at 0.9633 (14/09/2012 low) is likely in the next six months.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Rising back towards its strong resistance area.

• AUD/USD has recently declined but has failed to break its short-term rising trendline. The break of the recent declining trendline opens the way for a new test of the strong resistance area between 1.0586 (12/12/2012 high) and 1.0625.

• AUD/USD is moving within the medium-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0177 (25/07/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

Approaching the support at 140.52.

• GBP/JPY is likely in a short-term corrective phase. Monitor the support at 140.52 (16/01/2013 low). Other supports are at 139.41 (09/01/2013 low) and 138.09. An hourly resistance can be found at 143.09 (21/01/2013 high).

• GBP/JPY has broken its strong resistance at 140.03 (08/04/2011 high). Further long-term strength towards the key resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009) is expected.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

Correcting.

• EUR/JPY is weakening after having posted a marginal new high at 120.71. Supports are given by the steep rising trendline (around 117.0) and 116.47. An hourly resistance is at 120.24 (21/01/2013 high).

• Today's new lows force us to remove our potential long strategy as the stop-loss is not valid anymore.

• EUR/JPY has moved above its key resistance at 111.60 (31/10/2011 high). The long-term technical configuration favours further strength towards the strong resistance at 123.33 (11/04/2011 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

The resistance at 0.8395 has been broken.

• EUR/GBP has broken the resistance at 0.8395 (28/03/2012 high). A move towards the key resistance at 0.8506 is likely. Hourly supports can be found at 0.8378 (21/01/2013 low) and 0.8326 (14/01/2013 high).

• The breakout above the resistance at 0.8225 confirms the validity of the medium-term bullish head and shoulders. Further medium-term rise towards the strong resistance at 0.8506 (24/02/2012 high, see also long-term declining trendline linking the January 2009 peak with the one on July 2011) is expected.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Monitor the hourly horizontal range.

• EUR/CHF has failed to make a daily close above its strong resistance area between 1.2474 (19/10/2011 high) and 1.25 (psychological threshold). A short-term correction is likely. Hourly supports can be found at 1.2392 (18/01/2013 low) and 1.2306 (15/01/2013 low). An hourly resistance is at 1.2454 (intraday high).

• We favour further medium-term upside for the EUR/CHF towards the next psychological threshold at 1.30. Another resistance is at 1.3243. The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.

Buy limit 3 at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998.

GOLD

Challenging a key resistance area.

• Gold is challenging its key resistance area between 1695 (02/01/2013 high) and 1703 (18/12/2012 high, see also high of the declining channel). Hourly supports can be found at 1684 (18/01/2013 low) and 1667 (17/01/2013 low).

• Monitor the base formation defined by the support at 1626 and the resistance at 1695. A break to the upside would open the way for a move towards the resistance at 1755.

• Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Monitor the strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER

Challenging the resistance at 32.07.

• Silver is challenging the resistance at 32.07 (09/11/2012 low). Another resistance can be found at 32.54 (18/12/2012 high). Hourly supports are at 31.67 (18/01/2013 low) and 31.05 (17/01/2013 low).

• Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key long-term support made on September 2011 (i.e. 26.07). The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48 (29/02/2012 high).

Await fresh signal.