USD/JPY jumped over 200 pips since Friday, moving off lows near 100.00 to rise above the key 102.00 level on Monday. Prices peaked at 102.30 early in European session trading. The intra-day bias is bullish but looking at the short term bias it remains neutral as the pair has been stuck in a 100 -103 range during all of August.
The market would need to rise above the 103 yen level to see a shift in the bias and turn it back to the upside.
Meanwhile immediate resistance lies at 102.56, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downleg from 107.48 to 99.53 (July High to August low). Slightly above this level lies the 50-day moving average which will also be a barrier and then above this the key 103 level is a strong resistance.
RSI is rising and is above 50 in bullish territory so upside momentum still exists and keeps the likelihood of a further rise in prices.
Looking at the bigger picture, it appears the market is bottoming at the 100 yen level but in the event of prices falling below this key level, then the sharp downtrend that took place from the end of 2015 could resume.
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