USDJPY remains capped by falling daily cloud base; daily Tenkan-sen contains dips for now

EURUSD

The Euro consolidates above last Thursday’s fresh nearly two-month low at 1.1178, holding in daily Ichimoku cloud, spanned between 1.1142 and 1.1304. Near-term studies show mixed setup, suggesting extended consolidation before bears resume, as daily technicals are negative.
Initial resistance at 1.1243 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.1347/1.1178) remains intact for now and keeps the downside vulnerable.
However, extended upticks cannot be ruled out, with next significant barriers at 1.1282/94 (Fibo 61.8% retracement / daily 10/55 SMA’s bear-cross under formation), guarding upside breakpoint at 1.1304/11 (daily cloud top, reinforced by Tenkan-sen line).
Near-term focus remains at the downside, with loss of 1.1178 handle, seen as trigger for bearish extension towards targets at 1.1123 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.0820/1.1614 (10 Mar / 03 May upleg) and 1.1101 (200SMA).

Res: 1.1243; 1.1282; 1.1311; 1.1347
Sup: 1.1194; 1.1178; 1.1142; 1.1123




GBPUSD

Cable trades in extended consolidation above 1.4480 (last Friday’s low), which was retested twice today, proving to be strong support.
Friday’s close in long red candle, so far did not produce stronger damage, despite strong bearish signal that was generated.
Bounce above cracked daily Tenkan-sen (1.4495), turns near-term focus higher, as daily studies are bullish and trying to offset Friday’s bearish signal.
Extension above 1.4548 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.4660/1.4480 pullback), would give initial signal of reversal, while return above (1.4591 (Fibo 61.8% retracement) is needed to confirm higher low at 1.4480.
Initial support lies at 1.4480 base, followed by daily Kijun-sen at 1.4448, loss of which is needed to confirm bearish resumption.

Res: 1.4548; 1.4570; 1.4591; 1.4634
Sup: 1.4480; 1.4448; 1.4400; 1.4373






USDJPY

The pair dipped to 109.40 today (daily Tenkan-sen line), following repeated rejection at daily Ichimoku cloud base, currently at 110.17, which was also cracked on unsuccessful attempt higher last Friday.
As the base of descending thick daily cloud marks significant resistance, extended consolidation could be expected, before bulls re-assert for fresh attempts to finally break into cloud.
Extended dips are expected to find support above 108.65(Fibo 38.2% of 105.53/110.57 upleg, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line), to keep intact bullish structure of daily studies.
However, caution is required, as bearish divergence of slow stochastic is forming on daily chart and couls trigger possible stronger bearish acceleration below 108.65 support.

Res: 110.17; 110.37; 110.57; 111.00
Sup: 109.40; 109.00; 108.65; 108.05







AUDUSD

The pair shows indecision after posting fresh low at 0.7174 last Thursday, as near-term price action was shaped in two long-legged Dojis.
Upside attempts were so far capped by initial resistance at 0.7255 (200SMA), signaling limited upside action for now. Overall picture remains bearish and looks for eventual close below 0.7211 (cracked Fibo 61.8% of larger 0.6826/0.7833 rally), to confirm bearish resumption of short-term downmove from 0.7833 (21 Apr high).
Extended sideways trading could be expected, before larger bears resume towards next targets at 0.7106 and 0.7064 (29 Feb trough / Fibo 76.4% retracement).
Potential break above 200SMA would trigger extended upticks towards next barrier at 0.7287 (daily Tenkan-sen line, which guards upside breakpoint at 0.7353 (daily Ichimoku cloud base).

Res: 0.7255; 0.7287; 0.7329; 0.7353
Sup: 0.7215; 0.7174; 0.7106; 0.7064