Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
EURUSD
The pair is looking for extended consolidation under fresh high at 1.1216, posted on 10Mar, which resisted repeated attack on Friday, when the pair closed in red. This signals strong hesitation under weekly Ichimoku cloud base at 1.1186, which was cracked on Thursday’s strong post ECB rally.
Overall structure remains firmly bullish, following strong downside rejection that left double-bottom at 1.0820.
Rising daily cloud (spanned between 1.1001 at 1.0927), continues to underpin the action, after containing downtrend from 1.1374 (peak of 11 Feb).
Strong support zone between 1.1080 and 1.1065 (rising daily 30SMA / Fibo 38.2% of 1.0820/1.1270 rally) is expected to contain dips, ahead of fresh rallies.
Conversely, extended correction through key supports at 1.1044/00 (200SMA / daily cloud top) would weaken near-term structure and sideline upside attempts.
Res: 1.1174; 1.1192; 1.1216; 1.1245
Sup: 1.1080; 1.1065; 1.1044; 1.1000
GBPUSD
Cable holds steady after strong bullish close on Friday that eventually cleared daily 30SMA, which limited upside action during past week.
Friday’s rally closed above next significant level at 1.4347 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.4665/1.3834 downleg) and was so far capped by the base of thick daily Ichimoku cloud at 1.4434.
Bullish setup of daily technicals, favors renewed attempts at cloud’s base, violation of which will signal extension of the second leg of recovery from 1.3834.
Meantime, consolidation is expected to ideally hold above 1.4312 (Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4115/1.4434upleg / former top of 10 Mar) and keep intact key support, 30SMA at 1.4271.
Alternative scenario requires break below 30SMA, to signal stronger correction.
Res: 1.4387; 1.4434; 1.4469; 1.4500
Sup: 1.4334; 1.4312; 1.4271; 1.4205
USDCAD
Loonie eventually closed below 200SMA that acted as strong support and held the pair’s price around, during past few days.
Fresh weakness resulted in bearish close on Friday that generated negative signal for bearish resumption, after consolidation around 200SMA. The eighth consecutive weekly close in red, maintains downside pressure, as the pair now eyes immediate support at 1.3077 (daily 55SMA), ahead of psychological 1.3000 level, test of which could be anticipated in the near-term.
Meantime, crude oil’s corrective actions may keep immediate USDCAD’s bears on hold, with strong barriers at 1.3300 (200SMA and 1.3329 (falling 10SMA), expected to cap extended upticks..
Res: 1.3276; 1.3300; 1.3329; 1.3444
Sup : 1.3208; 1.3166; 1.3077; 1.3000
AUDUSD
Aussie remains well supported and hold just under 0.76 barrier, which was approached on today brief probe above last week’s high at 0.7581.
Strong bullish close on Friday and the second consecutive bullish weekly close, suggest further extension of recovery from 0.6825, mid-Jan’s base.
Sustained break above psychological 0.76 barrier will look for 0.7650, double-Fibonacci resistance (61.8% retracement of 0.8161/0.6825 / 161.8% expansion of extended wave C from 0.6972) and 0.7711 (Fibonacci 176.4% expansion).
Former consolidation range tops at 0.7380, offer solid support, which should ideally contain extended dips.
Res: 0.7591; 0.7650; 0.7711; 0.7810
Sup: 0.7516; 0.7488; 0.7425; 0.7380
The pair is looking for extended consolidation under fresh high at 1.1216, posted on 10Mar, which resisted repeated attack on Friday, when the pair closed in red. This signals strong hesitation under weekly Ichimoku cloud base at 1.1186, which was cracked on Thursday’s strong post ECB rally.
Overall structure remains firmly bullish, following strong downside rejection that left double-bottom at 1.0820.
Rising daily cloud (spanned between 1.1001 at 1.0927), continues to underpin the action, after containing downtrend from 1.1374 (peak of 11 Feb).
Strong support zone between 1.1080 and 1.1065 (rising daily 30SMA / Fibo 38.2% of 1.0820/1.1270 rally) is expected to contain dips, ahead of fresh rallies.
Conversely, extended correction through key supports at 1.1044/00 (200SMA / daily cloud top) would weaken near-term structure and sideline upside attempts.
Res: 1.1174; 1.1192; 1.1216; 1.1245
Sup: 1.1080; 1.1065; 1.1044; 1.1000
GBPUSD
Cable holds steady after strong bullish close on Friday that eventually cleared daily 30SMA, which limited upside action during past week.
Friday’s rally closed above next significant level at 1.4347 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.4665/1.3834 downleg) and was so far capped by the base of thick daily Ichimoku cloud at 1.4434.
Bullish setup of daily technicals, favors renewed attempts at cloud’s base, violation of which will signal extension of the second leg of recovery from 1.3834.
Meantime, consolidation is expected to ideally hold above 1.4312 (Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4115/1.4434upleg / former top of 10 Mar) and keep intact key support, 30SMA at 1.4271.
Alternative scenario requires break below 30SMA, to signal stronger correction.
Res: 1.4387; 1.4434; 1.4469; 1.4500
Sup: 1.4334; 1.4312; 1.4271; 1.4205
USDCAD
Loonie eventually closed below 200SMA that acted as strong support and held the pair’s price around, during past few days.
Fresh weakness resulted in bearish close on Friday that generated negative signal for bearish resumption, after consolidation around 200SMA. The eighth consecutive weekly close in red, maintains downside pressure, as the pair now eyes immediate support at 1.3077 (daily 55SMA), ahead of psychological 1.3000 level, test of which could be anticipated in the near-term.
Meantime, crude oil’s corrective actions may keep immediate USDCAD’s bears on hold, with strong barriers at 1.3300 (200SMA and 1.3329 (falling 10SMA), expected to cap extended upticks..
Res: 1.3276; 1.3300; 1.3329; 1.3444
Sup : 1.3208; 1.3166; 1.3077; 1.3000
AUDUSD
Aussie remains well supported and hold just under 0.76 barrier, which was approached on today brief probe above last week’s high at 0.7581.
Strong bullish close on Friday and the second consecutive bullish weekly close, suggest further extension of recovery from 0.6825, mid-Jan’s base.
Sustained break above psychological 0.76 barrier will look for 0.7650, double-Fibonacci resistance (61.8% retracement of 0.8161/0.6825 / 161.8% expansion of extended wave C from 0.6972) and 0.7711 (Fibonacci 176.4% expansion).
Former consolidation range tops at 0.7380, offer solid support, which should ideally contain extended dips.
Res: 0.7591; 0.7650; 0.7711; 0.7810
Sup: 0.7516; 0.7488; 0.7425; 0.7380
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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