EURUSD is back under 1.09 after recovery stall

EURUSD

The Euro probes below 1.09 handle, following short-lived recovery attempt from former low at 1.0902, which stalled at 1.0961.
Fresh bearish tone was signaled by Friday’s long red daily candle, which came after triple-Doji consolidation and close below pivotal supports at 1.0963/51 (Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0709/1.1374 rally / 100SMA), which generated bearish signal and keep next target at 1.0865 (daily Ichimoku cloud top), in near term focus.
Setup of daily MA’s is in firm bearish mode, with daily MACD and Momentum, breaking into negative territory and repeated strong bearish weekly close, maintaining negative structure.
Penetration into daily Ichimoku cloud, spanned between 1.0865 and 1.0788, would open key short-term support at 1.0709 (05 Jan trough).
Daily 55SMA at 1.0970, stayed out of reach in stalled recovery attempt, guarding more significant barriers at 1.1034/44 (daily 30 200SMA’s).

Res: 1.0970; 1.1000; 1.1044; 1.1065
Sup: 1.0878; 1.0865; 1.0788; 1.0709








GBPUSD

Cable maintains strong bearish sentiment and hit fresh marginally lower low at 1.3839 overnight, following Friday’s bearish close with long upper shadow of daily candle, confirming strong downside pressure.
In addition, the pair ended week in red, marking the strongest weekly losses since Nov 2015 and is on track for the fourth consecutive strong bearish monthly close.
Firm bearish setup of technical tools is seen on all timeframes, which suggests further losses, with increasing Brexit fears, maintaining strong downside pressure.
Narrow hourly consolidation was interrupted with short-lived extension higher, which suggests limited upside attempts.
Initial barrier (hourly Ichimoku cloud base at 1.3945), remains intact for now, marking the hourly cloud (spanned between 1.3945 and 1.3966), as strong barrier, guarding upside breakpoint at 1.4040 (last Friday’s high).
Immediate targets lay at 1.3720 (Fibonacci 161.8% projection of descend from 1.5928, 2015 peak) and 1.3680 (June 2001 low), as key longer-term support at 1.3501 (2009 low), is in short-term focus).

Res: 1.3911; 1.3945; 1.3966; 1.4000
Sup: 1.3839; 1.3720; 1.3680; 1.3600








USDCAD

The pair shows near-term recovery attempts, on a bounce above narrow consolidation, which developed above Friday’s fresh low at 1.3502. Last Friday’s tight Doji candle, signaled hesitation after two-day fall from 1.3857, driven by over 10% rise in oil prices last week.
Current move is so far seen as correction of larger downmove from1.4688, as overall structure remains firmly bearish, however, basing attempt and formation of reversal pattern, could be signaled on today’s strong close, which requires regain of pivotal1.3730 resistance zone (lower top of 25 Feb / Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.3857/1.3502 downleg, to confirm scenario.
Recovery attempts approach initial barrier, base of thick hourly Ichimoku cloud at 1.3579, which is spanned between 1.3579 and 1.3686 and marks significant barrier. Break above the cloud will be seen as initial recovery signal and open way towards 1.3730 pivot.
Otherwise, early recovery rejection would revive downside pressure, as the downmove from 1.4688, hasn’t completed yet, with bearish signals being generated on Friday’s close below 1.3629 (Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.1917/1.4688 (May 2015 / Jan 2016) upleg.

Res: 1.3579; 1.3638; 1.3680; 1.3730
Sup : 1.3502; 1.3404; 1.3300; 1.3268





USDJPY

The pair starts the week at the back foot, with bearish acceleration from Friday’s high at 113.97 (also today’s Asian session high) that reversed the largest part of Friday’s rally from 112.54.
Pullback probed below Fibonacci 38.2% of entire recovery leg from 111.03 (low of 24 Feb), but was so far contained by the top of thick hourly Ichimoku cloud.
Near-term studies are mixed, but bearish tone prevails on daily studies and sees increased downside risk, as the pair returned below broken daily 10SMA.
In addition, daily Slow Stochastic is entering overbought zone, which would generate additional bearish signal.
Unless the pair returns to 114.00/30 zone (recovery highs / falling daily 20SMA), risk of lower top formation and further weakness, would remain in play.


Res: 113.33; 113.50; 113.97; 114.33
Sup: 112.73; 112.50; 112.15; 111.72