Cable holds bullish bias; n/t congestion top in focus

EURUSD

The Euro peaked 1.1336, fresh 3 ½ month high, on yesterday’s acceleration and closed above 1.1264, former Fib 76.4% barrier, confirming bullish resumption on long bullish daily candle.
Consolidation is under way and expected to precede fresh leg higher, as sentiment remains positive for Euro and favors final attack at next target at 1.1350, 20 Oct high, which was approached on yesterday’s rally.
Setup of daily MA’s is firmly bullish, with 10/200SMA’s Golden Cross, formed at 1.1055, underpinning the action.
Easing off 1.1336 high still holds above former top at 1.1243, with possible extended dips seen towards good supports at 1.1160, yesterday’s low and 1.1135, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0808/1.1336 rally, which is expected to contain.

Res: 1.1310; 1.1350; 1.1385; 1.1458
Sup: 1.1243; 1.1200; 1.1160; 1.1135





GBPUSD

Cable remains within 1.4350/1.4545 congestion, showing indecision in past two-day directionless trading, which left two long-legged daily candles.
Setup of near-term technicals remains neutral, which suggests prolonged trading within the established range.
Daily MA’s show bullish setup, with 10/30SMA’s forming bull-cross and bullish momentum studies, which supports scenario for fresh upside attempts. Firm break above 1.4545, congestion top and Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.4665/1.4350 descend, is required to confirm bullish resumption and higher low at 1.4350.


Res: 1.4509; 1.4545; 1.4585; 1.4614
Sup: 1.4467; 1.4435; 1.4400; 1.4376








USDCAD

Yesterday’s bearish close gave initial signal of recovery stall, which peaked at 1.3976 on 08 Feb, however, long tail of yesterday’s daily candle, suggests that buying interest exists.
The action remains capped by descending daily 10SMA, currently at 1.3910 and while the price holds below it, outlook will remain negative.
Daily 10, 20 and 55SMA’s maintain bearish setup, along with negative MACD and Momentum studies and sideways-moving RSI, which holds below neutrality territory.
This suggests further weakness, with violation of yesterday’s low at 1.3784. also near Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.3637/1.3976 recovery rally, needed to confirm reversal.
Otherwise, prolonged consolidation could be expected while 1.3784 low holds, with lift above 10SMA, needed to confirm scenario.
Alternatively, bounce above 1.3976 recovery high, is required to revive near-term bulls for further recovery.
Psychological 1.40 barrier and 1.4038, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4688/1.3637 downleg, mark next significant barriers.

Res: 1.3910; 1.3976; 1.4038; 1.4099
Sup: 1.3841; 1.3800; 1.3784; 1.3766






USDJPY

The pair continues to trade within narrow consolidation above fresh low at 114.19, posted on extension of steep fall from 121.67, 29 Jan lower top.
Yesterday’s daily candle with long tail, along with Asian / Early Europe trading being shaped in long-tailed candle, signals strong hesitation after critical support zone at 115.95/56, lows of Dec 2014 / Jan 2016, also mark the floor of two-year congestion, was cracked.
However, bearish tone persists on all timeframes and sees limited upside actions, before bears resume.
Daily close below 115.95/56, pivotal support zone, will generate strong bearish signal for fresh retracement of 101.07/125.84 upleg, also larger uptrend that commenced from 76 zone, lows of 2011 and peaked at 125.84.
Former low at 115.95, also Fibonacci 23.6% of 121.67/114.19 descend, marks initial resistance, ahead of 117.05, Fibonacci 38.2%, where extended rallies should be capped.

Res: 115.24; 115.53; 115.95; 116.27
Sup: 114.19; 113.45; 112.56; 110.53