Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
EURUSD
The Euro eases below 1.12 handle, following choppy post NFP trading, which initially jumped to fresh 2016 high at 1.1243, but failed to hold gains.
Dollar gained traction despite disappointing NFP data that came well below expectations, but still above breakpoint, which lies at 100K zone, as unemployment fell to eight-year low.
However, the move could be described as corrective action, of larger bullish acceleration that commenced from 1.08 zone and peaked at 1.1243.
Overall sentiment remains bullish and expects fresh bull-leg to start, after end of corrective phase, as the pair is on track for strong weekly bullish close.
Pullback approaches initial support at 1.1095, top of rising hourly Ichimoku cloud, followed by 1.1077, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0808/1.1243 upleg, ahead of first pivot at 1.1054/40, 200SMA / weekly Ichimoku cloud base, which is expected to ideally contain dips.
Otherwise, daily close below here would signal false penetration into weekly cloud and deeper correction towards next pivotal supports at 1.0980 zone, former congestion tops / Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0808/1.1243 upleg.
Res: 1.1180; 1.1243; 1.1264; 1.1300
Sup: 1.1095; 1.1077; 1.1054; 1.1040;
GBPUSD
Cable is losing traction on fresh weakness below 1.45 handle, which cracked support at 1.4478, daily 30SMA. Fresh weakness is looking to leave bearish daily candle, which is about to form reversal pattern with yesterday’s long-legged Doji candle that signaled indecision and possible recovery stall.
Fresh acceleration lower broke below the base of thick hourly Ichimoku cloud and approaching next pivot at 1.4440, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4078/1.4665 recovery.
Daily close below here will be strong bearish signal for further retracement of 1.4078/1.4665 rally, as daily slow Stochastic is reversing from oversold territory.
Extended pullback would open rising daily 10SMA at 1.4392, followed by 20SMA at 1.4352, which should hold extended dips.
Only sustained break below 1.4300 handle, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 4078/1.4665 upleg, will neutralize and shift focus lower.
Res: 1..4505; 1.4584; 1.4610; 1.4665
Sup: 1.4440; 1.4392; 1.4352; 1.4300
USDCAD
The pair regains ground and jumps daily Ichimoku cloud top at 1.3762, to also probe above 1.38 barrier, following poor Canadian jobs data.
This may trigger stronger bounce, as yesterday’s long-tailed daily candle, signaled renewed buying interest.
Close above daily cloud top will signal false break into cloud and possible stronger recovery.
However, daily studies so far do not support such scenario, as MA’s and Indicators remain in firm bearish setup and slow Stochastic does not show strength to bounce after emerging from oversold territory.
Lift above next trigger, daily 55SMA at 1.3854, is needed to spark further recovery and sideline scenario of prolonged consolidation.
Res: 1.3815; 1.3854; 1.3885; 1.3906
Sup: 1.3762; 1.3707; 1.3637; 1.3600
The Euro eases below 1.12 handle, following choppy post NFP trading, which initially jumped to fresh 2016 high at 1.1243, but failed to hold gains.
Dollar gained traction despite disappointing NFP data that came well below expectations, but still above breakpoint, which lies at 100K zone, as unemployment fell to eight-year low.
However, the move could be described as corrective action, of larger bullish acceleration that commenced from 1.08 zone and peaked at 1.1243.
Overall sentiment remains bullish and expects fresh bull-leg to start, after end of corrective phase, as the pair is on track for strong weekly bullish close.
Pullback approaches initial support at 1.1095, top of rising hourly Ichimoku cloud, followed by 1.1077, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0808/1.1243 upleg, ahead of first pivot at 1.1054/40, 200SMA / weekly Ichimoku cloud base, which is expected to ideally contain dips.
Otherwise, daily close below here would signal false penetration into weekly cloud and deeper correction towards next pivotal supports at 1.0980 zone, former congestion tops / Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0808/1.1243 upleg.
Res: 1.1180; 1.1243; 1.1264; 1.1300
Sup: 1.1095; 1.1077; 1.1054; 1.1040;
GBPUSD
Cable is losing traction on fresh weakness below 1.45 handle, which cracked support at 1.4478, daily 30SMA. Fresh weakness is looking to leave bearish daily candle, which is about to form reversal pattern with yesterday’s long-legged Doji candle that signaled indecision and possible recovery stall.
Fresh acceleration lower broke below the base of thick hourly Ichimoku cloud and approaching next pivot at 1.4440, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4078/1.4665 recovery.
Daily close below here will be strong bearish signal for further retracement of 1.4078/1.4665 rally, as daily slow Stochastic is reversing from oversold territory.
Extended pullback would open rising daily 10SMA at 1.4392, followed by 20SMA at 1.4352, which should hold extended dips.
Only sustained break below 1.4300 handle, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 4078/1.4665 upleg, will neutralize and shift focus lower.
Res: 1..4505; 1.4584; 1.4610; 1.4665
Sup: 1.4440; 1.4392; 1.4352; 1.4300
USDCAD
The pair regains ground and jumps daily Ichimoku cloud top at 1.3762, to also probe above 1.38 barrier, following poor Canadian jobs data.
This may trigger stronger bounce, as yesterday’s long-tailed daily candle, signaled renewed buying interest.
Close above daily cloud top will signal false break into cloud and possible stronger recovery.
However, daily studies so far do not support such scenario, as MA’s and Indicators remain in firm bearish setup and slow Stochastic does not show strength to bounce after emerging from oversold territory.
Lift above next trigger, daily 55SMA at 1.3854, is needed to spark further recovery and sideline scenario of prolonged consolidation.
Res: 1.3815; 1.3854; 1.3885; 1.3906
Sup: 1.3762; 1.3707; 1.3637; 1.3600
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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