Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
EURUSD
The Euro regained traction, following yesterday’s strong bullish close that sidelined threats of retesting last week’s low at 1.0776. Temporary base was formed at 1.0787, lows of last Friday / yesterday, also 50% of larger 1.0519/1.1058 rally.
However, daily Ichimoku cloud base at 1.0857, reinforced by descending daily 20SMA, still acts as resistance, despite being cracked, as sideways-moving daily Tenkan-sen so far capped extended rally at 1.0880.
Daily studies hold neutral/bearish setup and keep the downside in focus, with 1.0880/1.0900 zone expected to cap and keep in play fresh attempts at pivotal 1.0787/76 supports.
Conversely, sustained break above 1.09 zone is needed to shift focus towards the upper boundary of short-term range and pivotal daily Ichimoku cloud top at psychological 1.10 barrier.
Res: 1.0880; 1.0920; 1.0983; 1.1006
Sup: 1.0840; 1.0800; 1.0787; 1.0776
GBPUSD
Cable is accelerating lower and broke below thick hourly Ichimoku cloud base at 1.4220 and psychological 1.42 support. Bears took control of near-term technicals on fresh weakness, triggered after repeated failure to clear descending daily 10SMA.
Daily slow Stochastic is reversing under overbought zone border, signaling an end of near-term corrective phase and increasing pressure towards fresh 7-year low at 1.4078 and psychological 1.4000 support. Violation of the latter is expected to open way towards next critical support at 1.3500, low of 2009.
Corrective attempts will be seen as positioning ahead of final push towards 1.4078 pivot, with falling daily 10SMA at 1.4256, offering good resistance and possible upticks expected to stay below 1.43 barrier.
Res: 1.4220; 1.4243; 1.4256; 1.4300
Sup: 1.4144; 1.4100; 1.4078; 1.4000
USDCAD
Rising downside threats on close below 20SMA on Friday, were sidelined after yesterday’s bullish close that formed Bullish Outside Day and closed above daily 20SMA, which returned to support.
Near-term studies are gaining bullish bias, while daily slow Stochastic is reversing from oversold territory and generates bullish signal. In addition, reversal of daily RSI from overbought zone, is showing basing attempts just above neutrality zone. Weaker oil prices support pair’s further recovery.
Recovery rally consolidates just under initial target at 1.4332, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4688/1.4112 pullback, which is seen as a trigger for rally towards next significant barrier, daily 10SMA at 1.4383. Sustained break here and 1.44 barrier, 50% retracement, is required to confirm reversal and signal higher low formation.
Expect rising daily 20SMA, currently at 1.4207, to contain corrective dips.
Res: 1.4332; 1.4385; 1.4468; 1.4538
Sup: 1.4259; 1.4207; 1.4160; 1.4112
AUDUSD
The pair probes above hourly Ichimoku cloud base at 0.6958, after overnight’s weakness from 0.6966 high, was contained at 0.6917, just above Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 0.6826/0.7044 upleg.
Near-term studies are mixed, while overall picture remains bearish. Current bounce is seen as positioning for fresh extension of the downleg from 0.7044, where recovery attempts from 0.6825 base were capped by falling daily 20SMA.
Thick hourly Ichimoku cloud acts as strong barrier and so far caps upside attempts. Only extension above hourly cloud top at 0.7007 would neutralize downside threats and confirm higher low at 0.6917.
Res: 0.6962; 0.6980; 0.7007; 0.7030
Sup: 0.6941; 0.6917; 0.6909; 0.6873
The Euro regained traction, following yesterday’s strong bullish close that sidelined threats of retesting last week’s low at 1.0776. Temporary base was formed at 1.0787, lows of last Friday / yesterday, also 50% of larger 1.0519/1.1058 rally.
However, daily Ichimoku cloud base at 1.0857, reinforced by descending daily 20SMA, still acts as resistance, despite being cracked, as sideways-moving daily Tenkan-sen so far capped extended rally at 1.0880.
Daily studies hold neutral/bearish setup and keep the downside in focus, with 1.0880/1.0900 zone expected to cap and keep in play fresh attempts at pivotal 1.0787/76 supports.
Conversely, sustained break above 1.09 zone is needed to shift focus towards the upper boundary of short-term range and pivotal daily Ichimoku cloud top at psychological 1.10 barrier.
Res: 1.0880; 1.0920; 1.0983; 1.1006
Sup: 1.0840; 1.0800; 1.0787; 1.0776
GBPUSD
Cable is accelerating lower and broke below thick hourly Ichimoku cloud base at 1.4220 and psychological 1.42 support. Bears took control of near-term technicals on fresh weakness, triggered after repeated failure to clear descending daily 10SMA.
Daily slow Stochastic is reversing under overbought zone border, signaling an end of near-term corrective phase and increasing pressure towards fresh 7-year low at 1.4078 and psychological 1.4000 support. Violation of the latter is expected to open way towards next critical support at 1.3500, low of 2009.
Corrective attempts will be seen as positioning ahead of final push towards 1.4078 pivot, with falling daily 10SMA at 1.4256, offering good resistance and possible upticks expected to stay below 1.43 barrier.
Res: 1.4220; 1.4243; 1.4256; 1.4300
Sup: 1.4144; 1.4100; 1.4078; 1.4000
USDCAD
Rising downside threats on close below 20SMA on Friday, were sidelined after yesterday’s bullish close that formed Bullish Outside Day and closed above daily 20SMA, which returned to support.
Near-term studies are gaining bullish bias, while daily slow Stochastic is reversing from oversold territory and generates bullish signal. In addition, reversal of daily RSI from overbought zone, is showing basing attempts just above neutrality zone. Weaker oil prices support pair’s further recovery.
Recovery rally consolidates just under initial target at 1.4332, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4688/1.4112 pullback, which is seen as a trigger for rally towards next significant barrier, daily 10SMA at 1.4383. Sustained break here and 1.44 barrier, 50% retracement, is required to confirm reversal and signal higher low formation.
Expect rising daily 20SMA, currently at 1.4207, to contain corrective dips.
Res: 1.4332; 1.4385; 1.4468; 1.4538
Sup: 1.4259; 1.4207; 1.4160; 1.4112
AUDUSD
The pair probes above hourly Ichimoku cloud base at 0.6958, after overnight’s weakness from 0.6966 high, was contained at 0.6917, just above Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 0.6826/0.7044 upleg.
Near-term studies are mixed, while overall picture remains bearish. Current bounce is seen as positioning for fresh extension of the downleg from 0.7044, where recovery attempts from 0.6825 base were capped by falling daily 20SMA.
Thick hourly Ichimoku cloud acts as strong barrier and so far caps upside attempts. Only extension above hourly cloud top at 0.7007 would neutralize downside threats and confirm higher low at 0.6917.
Res: 0.6962; 0.6980; 0.7007; 0.7030
Sup: 0.6941; 0.6917; 0.6909; 0.6873
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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