EURUSD - bears look for test of daily cloud base

EURUSD

The pair remains under pressure and moves lower, approaching initial support at 1.08, last Friday’s post NFP low. Bears are taking control on daily technicals, as probe below daily 55SMA at 1.0830, is turning setup of daily MA’s into full bearish mode and indicators are moving into negative territory.
Firm break below 1.0810/00, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0713/1.0967 upleg / Friday’s low, which marks the first pivot, would open next significant support at 1.0772, daily Ichimoku cloud base, loss of which to expose key 1.0709/13 higher base, for full retracement of recovery leg from 1.0709, 05 Jan low.

Res: 1.0858; 1.0885; 1.0940; 1.0967
Sup: 1.0800; 1.0770; 1.0725; 1.0709






GBPUSD

Cable is in near-term consolidation above fresh multi-year low at 1.4350, posted yesterday, just ahead of June 2010 low at 1.4344 and our target at 1.4331, Fibonacci 138.2% expansion of extended wave C from 1.4943.
Further upside attempts could be expected as daily studies are oversold and slow Stochastic reversed and emerged from oversold territory. However, overall bears are looking for fresh extension lower, after completion of consolidative phase.
Former target and lows of 08/11 Jan at 1.4500, offer initial barrier, followed by 1.4576, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4943/1.4350 downleg and falling daily 10SMA at 1.4613, below which, extended corrective attempts should be capped.
Renewed weakness through 1.4350/31 pivots, would open way towards next target at 1.4230, trough of Apr 2010.

Res: 1.4473; 1.4500; 1.4576; 1.4613
Sup: 1.4416; 1.4350; 1.4331; 1.4230







USDJPY

The pair resumes recovery above 118 barrier, which acted as strong resistance and capped past two days recovery attempts.
Today’s fresh strength sees risk of formation of Bear-Trap reversal pattern, with daily close above 118 handle, required to confirm.
Extension above 118.00 pivot and 118.20, Fibonacci 38.2% of 120.64/116.67 downleg, is looking for next pivot at 118.63, falling daily 10SMA and 50% retracement, break of which will generate fresh bullish signal and expose 119.12, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level.
Otherwise, upside rejection and return below 118 handle would neutralize idea of reversal pattern formation and subsequent stronger correction.

Res: 118.63; 119.12; 119.70; 120.00
Sup: 118.00; 117.62; 117.21; 116.67






AUDUSD

The pair probes above near-term consolidation top at 0.7034, as fresh strength emerges after two long-legged daily candles that signaled initial hesitation.
Daily slow Stochastic is heading north, after reversing from oversold territory and generates bullish signal.
Extension above psychological 0.7000 barrier, requires daily close above here, following double failure in past two days, to signal stronger recovery.
The pair now trades in the fourth, corrective wave from 0.6925, as a part of five-wave descend that commenced from 0.7383, 04 Dec high. The wave could extend to 0.7155, according to wave principles, where daily Ichimoku cloud base and daily 20SMA are expected to cap extended correction.
However, overall structure remains firmly bearish and is expected to commence fresh leg lower on attempts at key 0.6906 support, on completion of near-term corrective phase.

Res: 0.7073; 0.7095; 0.7125; 0.7155
Sup: 0.7034; 0.7000; 0.6972; 0.6950