Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
EURUSD
The Euro came under pressure and dipped to 1.0900, rising daily 10SMA, after yesterday’s repeated failure to sustain break above 200SMA, which lies at 1.1033. Brief extension higher was capped by 100SMA at 1.1058 and subsequent reversal closed again below daily Ichimoku cloud base, currently at 1.0978, which continues to cap near-term price action.
Sideways mode is expected to extend, as daily MA’s show mixed setup and south-heading slow Stochastic conflicts with bullishly aligned MACD and Momentum studies.
Further downside pressure could be expected while the price remains capped by descending daily Ichimoku cloud base.
Immediate support lies at 1.0925, former consolidation floor, ahead of 1.0903, yesterday’s low, loss of which would signal fresh weakness and expose 1.0852 and 1.0794 pivots.
Conversely, violation of daily cloud base, would ease immediate downside pressure, for retest of 200SMA and 100SMA barriers, however, lift above daily cloud top at 1.1083, is required to confirm bullish resumption.
Res: 1.0978; 1.1033; 1.1058; 1.1083
Sup: 1.0925; 1.0903; 1.0852; 1.0794
GBPUSD
Strong two-day fall retraced over 61.8% of 1.4892/1.5237 upleg and today’s fresh extension lower, cracked psychological 1.50 support. Bears are firmly in play on all timeframes, supporting firm break of 1.50 handle, for test of next significant support at 1.4954, 08 Dec higher low. Increased risk of full retracement of 1.4892/1.5237 rally, would be expected on break below of 1.4954 support, with signals of resumption of larger downtrend, through 1.4892, 29 Nov low, towards 1.4861, weekly bear-channel support.
Corrective rallies should be ideally capped by descending daily 30SMA, currently at 1.5128.
Res: 1.5056; 1.5100; 1.5128; 1.5150
Sup: 1.4974; 1.4954; 1.4892; 1.4861
USDJPY
The pair is regaining traction, as today’s fresh rallies extend recovery that commenced yesterday and closed above pivotal 200SMA. Fresh bulls are eyeing next pivot at 122.20 zone, base of thin 4-hour Ichimoku cloud / lower top of 11 Dec and near Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 123.46/120.33 downleg.
North-heading daily slow Stochastic shows room for further recovery extension, which should be ideally capped under 122.55, daily 20/30 SMA’s bear-cross, to keep overall bearish structure intact.
Otherwise, expect daily bulls to return to play and signal higher low at 120.33 low, on sustained break above 122.55 barrier.
Res: 122.24; 122.55; 123.03; 123.46
Sup: 121.57; 120.96; 120.56; 120.33
AUDUSD
The pair consolidates above fresh lows at 0.7155, where the top of thin daily Ichimoku cloud and Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7014/0.7383 upleg, contained again downside attempts. Repeated daily candle with long shadows, this time in red, suggests indecision at strong support at 0.7155, which was also tested on 23 Nov.
Setup of daily studies is bearish and signals increased risk of final break through 0.7155 handle and fresh bearish extension towards 0.7100, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement. And 0.7067, 18 Nov higher low.
Such scenario would open way for full retracement of 0.7014/0.7383 upleg.
Conversely, regain of 0.7270/80, daily Tenkan-sen / yesterday’s high, would neutralize downside threats and shift near-term focus higher.
Res: 0.7224; 0.7245; 0.7280; 0.7332
Sup: 0.7177; 0.7155; 0.7100; 0.7067
The Euro came under pressure and dipped to 1.0900, rising daily 10SMA, after yesterday’s repeated failure to sustain break above 200SMA, which lies at 1.1033. Brief extension higher was capped by 100SMA at 1.1058 and subsequent reversal closed again below daily Ichimoku cloud base, currently at 1.0978, which continues to cap near-term price action.
Sideways mode is expected to extend, as daily MA’s show mixed setup and south-heading slow Stochastic conflicts with bullishly aligned MACD and Momentum studies.
Further downside pressure could be expected while the price remains capped by descending daily Ichimoku cloud base.
Immediate support lies at 1.0925, former consolidation floor, ahead of 1.0903, yesterday’s low, loss of which would signal fresh weakness and expose 1.0852 and 1.0794 pivots.
Conversely, violation of daily cloud base, would ease immediate downside pressure, for retest of 200SMA and 100SMA barriers, however, lift above daily cloud top at 1.1083, is required to confirm bullish resumption.
Res: 1.0978; 1.1033; 1.1058; 1.1083
Sup: 1.0925; 1.0903; 1.0852; 1.0794
GBPUSD
Strong two-day fall retraced over 61.8% of 1.4892/1.5237 upleg and today’s fresh extension lower, cracked psychological 1.50 support. Bears are firmly in play on all timeframes, supporting firm break of 1.50 handle, for test of next significant support at 1.4954, 08 Dec higher low. Increased risk of full retracement of 1.4892/1.5237 rally, would be expected on break below of 1.4954 support, with signals of resumption of larger downtrend, through 1.4892, 29 Nov low, towards 1.4861, weekly bear-channel support.
Corrective rallies should be ideally capped by descending daily 30SMA, currently at 1.5128.
Res: 1.5056; 1.5100; 1.5128; 1.5150
Sup: 1.4974; 1.4954; 1.4892; 1.4861
USDJPY
The pair is regaining traction, as today’s fresh rallies extend recovery that commenced yesterday and closed above pivotal 200SMA. Fresh bulls are eyeing next pivot at 122.20 zone, base of thin 4-hour Ichimoku cloud / lower top of 11 Dec and near Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 123.46/120.33 downleg.
North-heading daily slow Stochastic shows room for further recovery extension, which should be ideally capped under 122.55, daily 20/30 SMA’s bear-cross, to keep overall bearish structure intact.
Otherwise, expect daily bulls to return to play and signal higher low at 120.33 low, on sustained break above 122.55 barrier.
Res: 122.24; 122.55; 123.03; 123.46
Sup: 121.57; 120.96; 120.56; 120.33
AUDUSD
The pair consolidates above fresh lows at 0.7155, where the top of thin daily Ichimoku cloud and Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7014/0.7383 upleg, contained again downside attempts. Repeated daily candle with long shadows, this time in red, suggests indecision at strong support at 0.7155, which was also tested on 23 Nov.
Setup of daily studies is bearish and signals increased risk of final break through 0.7155 handle and fresh bearish extension towards 0.7100, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement. And 0.7067, 18 Nov higher low.
Such scenario would open way for full retracement of 0.7014/0.7383 upleg.
Conversely, regain of 0.7270/80, daily Tenkan-sen / yesterday’s high, would neutralize downside threats and shift near-term focus higher.
Res: 0.7224; 0.7245; 0.7280; 0.7332
Sup: 0.7177; 0.7155; 0.7100; 0.7067
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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