Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
EURUSD
The Euro slid below 1.06 handle, after weaker-than-expected EU inflation data, signaled that bounce from near-term base, established at 1.0556, could be short-lived. Quick acceleration lower, which followed repeated rejection at 1.0630, daily 10 SMA, surged through hourly Ichimoku cloud, to find footstep at 1.0580.
Structure of near-term studies is weak and sees increased risk of return 1.0556 base. In addition, firm bearish setup of daily technicals, favors limited recovery attempts, ahead of fresh push lower, which will be looking for key med-term support at 1.0461, 12 Mar yearly low.
Meantime, prolonged consolidation could be anticipated while 1.0556 base holds, with 10SMA expected to cap.
Only rallies above falling daily 20SMA, currently at 1.0682, would delay immediate bears.
Res: 1.0613; 1.0635; 1.0682; 1.0737
Sup: 1.0580; 1.0556; 1.0519; 1.0461
GBPUSD
Cable accelerated lower, on the third wave of pullback from 1.5125 and approaches psychological 1.50 support. Two-day recovery rally on failure t 1.50 support, was short-lived and stalled at 1.5125, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5334/1.4992 descend / falling daily 10SMA. This kept intact more significant barrier at 1.5188, weekly Ichimoku cloud base, which marks the breakpoint.
Fresh weakness brought near-term bears back to play, while overall picture remains negative and looks for renewed attempt through 1.50 pivot. Firm break here is expected to open another strong support at 1.4900, weekly bear-channel support.
Better-than-expected US ADP data additionally boosted the greenback and support scenario of final surge through 1.50 support.
Res: 1.5030; 1.5056; 1.5085; 1.5125
Sup: 1.4992; 1.4941; 1.4900; 1.4860
USDJPY
The pair regains traction and rises above 123 handle, after yesterday’s bearish Inside Day did not significantly affect price action. Rising daily 20SMA continues to underpin, after yesterday’s weakness managed to close marginally above it.
However, repeated failures to close above 123.17, cracked Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 123.74/122.24 downleg, so far limit upside attempts, as two consecutive upside rejections occurred at 123.30 zone.
Daily studies hold firm bullish tone and support final break above 123.17/30 barriers, for extension towards near-term target at 124.74.
Initial supports lay at 122.87, daily 20SMA and 122.62, yesterday’s low, guarding 122.25/20 breakpoint.
Res: 123.32; 123.59; 123.74; 124.50
Sup: 122.87; 122.62; 122.20; 121.75
AUDUSD
Aussie remains well supported and consolidates under today’s marginally higher high at 0.7340, ahead of final attack at key 0.7380 barrier, high of 12 Oct. Yesterday’s extension of rally from 0.7168, 30 Nov higher low, left long bullish daily candle, which confirms strong bullish stance for full retracement of 0.7380/0.7014 downleg.
Technicals of all timeframes maintain firm bullish setup for further upside, however, hesitation on approach to key 0.7380 barrier could be anticipated, as daily slow Stochastic is breaking into overbought zone.
Rising daily 10 SMA which currently lies at 0.7240, offers good support and should act of ideal reversal point for corrective dips.
Res: 0.7340; 0.7361; 0.7380; 0.7435
Sup: 0.7302; 0.7275; 0.7240; 0.7214
The Euro slid below 1.06 handle, after weaker-than-expected EU inflation data, signaled that bounce from near-term base, established at 1.0556, could be short-lived. Quick acceleration lower, which followed repeated rejection at 1.0630, daily 10 SMA, surged through hourly Ichimoku cloud, to find footstep at 1.0580.
Structure of near-term studies is weak and sees increased risk of return 1.0556 base. In addition, firm bearish setup of daily technicals, favors limited recovery attempts, ahead of fresh push lower, which will be looking for key med-term support at 1.0461, 12 Mar yearly low.
Meantime, prolonged consolidation could be anticipated while 1.0556 base holds, with 10SMA expected to cap.
Only rallies above falling daily 20SMA, currently at 1.0682, would delay immediate bears.
Res: 1.0613; 1.0635; 1.0682; 1.0737
Sup: 1.0580; 1.0556; 1.0519; 1.0461
GBPUSD
Cable accelerated lower, on the third wave of pullback from 1.5125 and approaches psychological 1.50 support. Two-day recovery rally on failure t 1.50 support, was short-lived and stalled at 1.5125, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5334/1.4992 descend / falling daily 10SMA. This kept intact more significant barrier at 1.5188, weekly Ichimoku cloud base, which marks the breakpoint.
Fresh weakness brought near-term bears back to play, while overall picture remains negative and looks for renewed attempt through 1.50 pivot. Firm break here is expected to open another strong support at 1.4900, weekly bear-channel support.
Better-than-expected US ADP data additionally boosted the greenback and support scenario of final surge through 1.50 support.
Res: 1.5030; 1.5056; 1.5085; 1.5125
Sup: 1.4992; 1.4941; 1.4900; 1.4860
USDJPY
The pair regains traction and rises above 123 handle, after yesterday’s bearish Inside Day did not significantly affect price action. Rising daily 20SMA continues to underpin, after yesterday’s weakness managed to close marginally above it.
However, repeated failures to close above 123.17, cracked Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 123.74/122.24 downleg, so far limit upside attempts, as two consecutive upside rejections occurred at 123.30 zone.
Daily studies hold firm bullish tone and support final break above 123.17/30 barriers, for extension towards near-term target at 124.74.
Initial supports lay at 122.87, daily 20SMA and 122.62, yesterday’s low, guarding 122.25/20 breakpoint.
Res: 123.32; 123.59; 123.74; 124.50
Sup: 122.87; 122.62; 122.20; 121.75
AUDUSD
Aussie remains well supported and consolidates under today’s marginally higher high at 0.7340, ahead of final attack at key 0.7380 barrier, high of 12 Oct. Yesterday’s extension of rally from 0.7168, 30 Nov higher low, left long bullish daily candle, which confirms strong bullish stance for full retracement of 0.7380/0.7014 downleg.
Technicals of all timeframes maintain firm bullish setup for further upside, however, hesitation on approach to key 0.7380 barrier could be anticipated, as daily slow Stochastic is breaking into overbought zone.
Rising daily 10 SMA which currently lies at 0.7240, offers good support and should act of ideal reversal point for corrective dips.
Res: 0.7340; 0.7361; 0.7380; 0.7435
Sup: 0.7302; 0.7275; 0.7240; 0.7214
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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