Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
EURUSD
The pair holds in narrow consolidation, which is so far capped by hourly Ichimoku cloud base and under 1.08 handle, former low and pivotal support, now reverted to initial resistance. Near-term structure remains weak and sees limited upside attempts, before overall bears take control. Break below psychological 1.07 support will be initial bearish signal for extension towards 1.0660, Apr lows and 1.0611, Fibonacci 261.8% expansion, with key 1.0461 support, Mar 2015 low, expected to come in near-term focus.
Falling daily 10SMA and south-turning daily Tenkan-sen line, maintain descend, currently at 1.0885 and guard pivotal resistance at 1.0965, bear-trendline, connecting 1.1712 and 1.1458 peaks.
Res: 1.0777; 1.0800; 1.0821; 1.0900
Sup: 1.0735; 1.0705; 1.0658; 1.0611
GBPUSD
Extended rallies off fresh low at 1.5026, strong 1.5105 barrier, but upside remains limited for now. Hourly Ichimoku cloud base, which was penetrated yesterday, comes under pressure again, after upside attempts were so far capped at 1.5126.
Bears are temporarily sidelined on hourly chart, but remain fully in play on larger timeframes, suggesting fresh downside attempts, on completion of current consolidation phase.
However, further consolidation or fresh extension higher, cannot be ruled out, as daily slow Stochastic is turning up in oversold zone.
Strong resistance lies at 1.52 zone, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5495/1.5025 / weekly cloud base and potential stronger rallies should be capped here.
Res: 1.5126; 1.5200; 1.5240; 1.5265
Sup: 1.5087; 1.5026; 1.5000; 1.4950
USDJPY
The pair enters near-term consolidation after peaking at 123.59 yesterday, when the day was closed in red, after five consecutive bullish days. Consolidation was so far contained at 123 zone, as no reversal signal being generated, with overbought daily RSI & slow Stochastic, moving sideways.
However, extended dips could be anticipated, ideally to be contained at 122.20, Fibonacci 38.2% of 120.00/123.59 upleg, before overall bulls re-assert for attempts at next target at 124.14, June 2007 peak.
Conversely, expect extended correction on break below 122.20 support and 121.90, daily Tenkan-sen line.
Res: 123.59; 123.78; 124.14; 124.56
Sup: 122.96; 122.74; 122.22; 121.90
AUDUSD
Aussie continues to trade in narrow consolidation above fresh low at 0.7019, with the action being so far capped by daily Ichimoku cloud base at 0.7057.
Hourly studies are in neutral mode, while setup of 4-hour and daily technicals remains firmly bearish. Oversold daily slow Stochastic suggests possible further upside attempt, once reversal signal will be generated, with next barriers at 0.7105, falling daily 10 SMA, also near Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.7222/0.7019 and 0.7120, daily Tenkan-sen, which should ideally cap extended rallies.
Completion of corrective phase will signal fresh leg lower, extension of larger downtrend from 0.7380, 12 Oct peak.
Res: 0.7057; 0.7100; 0.7120; 0.7145
Sup: 0.7038; 0.7019; 0.7000; 0.6935
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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