USDJPY eyes 2007 peak after weekly close above 123.13, Fibo 76.4%

EURUSD

The Euro consolidates above fresh multi-month low at 1.0705, posted on last Friday’s bearish acceleration on significantly higher-than-expected US jobs data. The pair dipped close to psychological 1.07 support, after meeting target at 1.0713, Fibonacci 200% projection of the downleg from 1.1494, 15 Oct peak.
Strong bearish daily and weekly close, with weekly close below bull-trendline, drawn off 1.0461, 2015 low that also marks the lower boundary of monthly bearish wedge pattern, gives strong signals for final push towards 1.0461, to fully retrace 1.0461/1.1712 correction.
Firm bearish tone of larger timeframes with formation of 20/200SMA’s death-cross formation, supports scenario. However, oversold daily slow Stochastic which starts to point higher on the daily chart, suggests interruption of the downtrend, before final push towards 1.0461 target.
Strong resistance lies at 1.09 zone, highs of last Thu/Fri, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen, now turning sideways. Rallies should be ideally capped here, to keep intact pivotal barriers at 1.0980/1.1000, bear-trendline, connecting 1.1712/1.1458 peaks and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.1494/1.0705 descend.

Res: 1.0777; 1.0800; 1.0821; 1.0900
Sup: 1.0751; 1.0717; 1.0705; 1.0658






GBPUSD

Cable trades in narrow consolidation above Friday’s lows at 1.5026 that formed hourly base and offer support ahead of psychological 1.5000 handle.
Two consecutive long daily bearish candles and strong weekly bearish close that ended three-week congestion are supportive for further weakness and test of next supports at 1.5000 and 1.4885/54, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.4563/1.5928 rally / 21 Apr low.
The pair so far lacks momentum for stronger recovery, with former breakpoint at 1.5105, reinforced by lower 20d Bollinger band, now acting as initial strong resistance, being intact for now.
However, extended correction, should stay below 1.5200, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5495/1.5026 downleg, to keep the structure intact.

Res: 1.5105; 1.5136; 1.5200; 1.5240
Sup: 1.5026; 1.5000; 1.4950; 1.4900








USDJPY

The pair left long daily and weekly bullish candles, after strong post-NFP acceleration higher that met and closed marginally above target at 123.13, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 125.26/116.13 descend, which now acts as initial support.
This gives additional bullish signal for resumption towards next target at 124.14, June 2007 peak and possible extension to 125.84, 2015 high.
Firm bullish setup of daily studies, supports scenario, however, overbought daily slow Stochastic and RSI, suggest corrective actions in the near-term. No reversal signals being generated yet.

Res: 123.60; 123.78; 124.14; 124.56
Sup: 123.13; 122.74; 122.22; 121.80






AUDUSD

Aussie jumps higher after posting marginally lower low at 0.7019 today, following last Friday’s sharp acceleration lower that left long daily bearish candle, closing below daily Ichimoku cloud base at 0.7078 and fourth consecutive weekly close in red.
This gives strong bearish signals for final push through psychological support, towards targets at 0.6935/06 lows of 24/29 Sep and 04 Sep.
Bounce is seen as consolidation on approach to 0.7000 support, with rallies being so far capped by daily cloud base at 0.7070. However, penetration of cloud’s base is not ruled out, with extended correction to look for the next barrier at 0.7100, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.7222/0.7019 downleg and 0.7120, 50% retracement, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen, which is expected to cap.
Firm bearish tone of daily technical studies, keeps the downside focused.
Alternative scenario requires return above daily Ichimoku cloud top at 0.7171, to neutralize downside threats.

Res: 0.7070; 0.7100; 0.7120; 0.7171
Sup: 0.7040; 0.7019; 0.7000; 0.6935