Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
EURUSD
The Euro collapsed on surprisingly high US Oct NFP data that came at 271K, above the most optimistic forecasts. Overall sentiment was positive, with majority of traders being around 180k to 200K expectations.
The greenback received strong boost and rallies strongly vs the single currency, as the pair dipped to 1.07 zone, on initial reaction on NFP’s release.
Initial acceleration took out very important 1.08 support zone, which acted as critical med-term support, marking the bottom of May / Oct congestion.
Also, fresh weakness completed monthly bearish wedge pattern, on break below pattern’s support line at 1.09 zone. Break here could trigger significant move lower, similar to the fall from 1.3992, after completion of 2012/2014 bearish wedge.
Fresh fall met initial target at 1.0713, Fibonacci 200% projection of the downleg from 1.1494, 15 Oct peak, with break lower to look for 1.0658, low of 21 Apr.
Return to key longer-term support at 1.0461, year-to-date low, posted on 13 Mar, is coming in short-term focus.
The pair is also on track for very strong weekly bearish close that will maintain overall negative sentiment.
Corrective action should be anticipated, as oversold conditions persist on all timeframes, however, no reversal signals being generated yet.
Former breakpoints at 1.08 zone, now act as initial resistances, with weekly close below, seen as confirmation of final break .
Res: 1.0773; 1.0800; 1.0832; 1.0896
Sup: 1.0705; 1.0658; 1.0600; 1.0520
The Euro collapsed on surprisingly high US Oct NFP data that came at 271K, above the most optimistic forecasts. Overall sentiment was positive, with majority of traders being around 180k to 200K expectations.
The greenback received strong boost and rallies strongly vs the single currency, as the pair dipped to 1.07 zone, on initial reaction on NFP’s release.
Initial acceleration took out very important 1.08 support zone, which acted as critical med-term support, marking the bottom of May / Oct congestion.
Also, fresh weakness completed monthly bearish wedge pattern, on break below pattern’s support line at 1.09 zone. Break here could trigger significant move lower, similar to the fall from 1.3992, after completion of 2012/2014 bearish wedge.
Fresh fall met initial target at 1.0713, Fibonacci 200% projection of the downleg from 1.1494, 15 Oct peak, with break lower to look for 1.0658, low of 21 Apr.
Return to key longer-term support at 1.0461, year-to-date low, posted on 13 Mar, is coming in short-term focus.
The pair is also on track for very strong weekly bearish close that will maintain overall negative sentiment.
Corrective action should be anticipated, as oversold conditions persist on all timeframes, however, no reversal signals being generated yet.
Former breakpoints at 1.08 zone, now act as initial resistances, with weekly close below, seen as confirmation of final break .
Res: 1.0773; 1.0800; 1.0832; 1.0896
Sup: 1.0705; 1.0658; 1.0600; 1.0520
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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