Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
EURUSD
The Euro collapsed yesterday on ECB chief’s comments, taking out all strong supports and turning near-term structure into firm bearish mode. Yesterday’s fall left long red candle, cracking initial 1.1103 support, with today’s fresh extension lower, probing below 1.1086, 03 Sep former low.
Full retracement of the bull-phase from 1.11 zone to 1.1494 and cracking short-term higher base, opens way for further weakness, as daily studies are turning negative (bearish setup of daily MA’s and indicators attempting below the midlines).
Former pivotal support of 200SMA is reverted to initial resistance at 1.1120 and caps for now.
Asian and early Europe trading is shaped in tight Doji, suggesting narrow consolidation, ahead of fresh leg lower.
However, further correction cannot be ruled out, as near-term studies are oversold.
Broken daily Ichimoku cloud base at 1.1260, should limit extended rallies, to keep fresh bears intact.
The pair is on track for strong bearish weekly close, which will confirm reversal from 1.1494 top.
Res: 1.1120; 1.1167; 1.1227; 1.1260
Sup: 1.1090; 1.1070; 1.1000; 1.0955
GBPUSD
Cable closed below daily Ichimoku cloud base, which was marking pivotal support, with yesterday’s third consecutive daily close in red. Long upper shadow of yesterday’s candle, confirms strong downside pressure, after triple-rejection at 1.5506, where daily lower platform has formed.
Near-term studies are in bearish mode and suggest fresh weakness, after initial supports were taken out, however, caution is still required, as structure of daily technicals remains bullishly aligned and would signal fresh upside attempts while temporary support at 1.5370 zone holds and price penetrates back in the daily cloud.
Res: 1.5420; 1.5444; 1.5452; 1.5485
Sup: 1.5386; 1.5367; 1.5317; 1.5272
USDJPY
Yesterday’s strong acceleration of recovery rally from 118.05 lows, broke above 120.21/70 daily Ichimoku cloud, which acts as key near-term barrier. Rally peaked at 120.97, where 200SMA capped, with near-term price action holding in the cloud, as cloud base contained pullback for now.
Despite firm bullish tone of near-term studies, downside risk still exists, as setup of daily indicators and MA’s is mixed.
To neutralize downside threats, close above daily cloud top is required, with extension above 200SMA and short-term congestion top 121.31, to confirm bullish resumption.
Otherwise, further consolidation could be expected, while the price holds in the cloud. Close below the cloud would risk stronger correction
Res: 120.70; 120.97; 121.31; 121.64
Sup: 120.21; 120.00; 119.60; 119.25
AUDUSD
Aussie bounced strongly from daily cloud top, which limited upside attempts during past sessions and now acting as strong support. Strong acceleration is bringing near-term bulls back to play, as the rally approaches psychological 0.73 barrier, after probing above 50% of 0.7380/0.7180 pullback.
This could signal an end of corrective phase from 0.7380 peak, with daily close above 0.73 barrier, Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7380/0.7180, needed to confirm.
Bullish daily technicals, with rising daily 20SMA underpinning the action, are supportive for further upside.
Meantime consolidation of today’s strong rally will be seen as likely scenario, with yesterday’s consolidation tops at 0.7235, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7195/0.7287 rally, expected to contain possible extended dips.
Res: 0.7287; 0.7305; 0.7335; 0.7361
Sup: 0.8265; 0.7252; 0.7235; 0.7195
The Euro collapsed yesterday on ECB chief’s comments, taking out all strong supports and turning near-term structure into firm bearish mode. Yesterday’s fall left long red candle, cracking initial 1.1103 support, with today’s fresh extension lower, probing below 1.1086, 03 Sep former low.
Full retracement of the bull-phase from 1.11 zone to 1.1494 and cracking short-term higher base, opens way for further weakness, as daily studies are turning negative (bearish setup of daily MA’s and indicators attempting below the midlines).
Former pivotal support of 200SMA is reverted to initial resistance at 1.1120 and caps for now.
Asian and early Europe trading is shaped in tight Doji, suggesting narrow consolidation, ahead of fresh leg lower.
However, further correction cannot be ruled out, as near-term studies are oversold.
Broken daily Ichimoku cloud base at 1.1260, should limit extended rallies, to keep fresh bears intact.
The pair is on track for strong bearish weekly close, which will confirm reversal from 1.1494 top.
Res: 1.1120; 1.1167; 1.1227; 1.1260
Sup: 1.1090; 1.1070; 1.1000; 1.0955
GBPUSD
Cable closed below daily Ichimoku cloud base, which was marking pivotal support, with yesterday’s third consecutive daily close in red. Long upper shadow of yesterday’s candle, confirms strong downside pressure, after triple-rejection at 1.5506, where daily lower platform has formed.
Near-term studies are in bearish mode and suggest fresh weakness, after initial supports were taken out, however, caution is still required, as structure of daily technicals remains bullishly aligned and would signal fresh upside attempts while temporary support at 1.5370 zone holds and price penetrates back in the daily cloud.
Res: 1.5420; 1.5444; 1.5452; 1.5485
Sup: 1.5386; 1.5367; 1.5317; 1.5272
USDJPY
Yesterday’s strong acceleration of recovery rally from 118.05 lows, broke above 120.21/70 daily Ichimoku cloud, which acts as key near-term barrier. Rally peaked at 120.97, where 200SMA capped, with near-term price action holding in the cloud, as cloud base contained pullback for now.
Despite firm bullish tone of near-term studies, downside risk still exists, as setup of daily indicators and MA’s is mixed.
To neutralize downside threats, close above daily cloud top is required, with extension above 200SMA and short-term congestion top 121.31, to confirm bullish resumption.
Otherwise, further consolidation could be expected, while the price holds in the cloud. Close below the cloud would risk stronger correction
Res: 120.70; 120.97; 121.31; 121.64
Sup: 120.21; 120.00; 119.60; 119.25
AUDUSD
Aussie bounced strongly from daily cloud top, which limited upside attempts during past sessions and now acting as strong support. Strong acceleration is bringing near-term bulls back to play, as the rally approaches psychological 0.73 barrier, after probing above 50% of 0.7380/0.7180 pullback.
This could signal an end of corrective phase from 0.7380 peak, with daily close above 0.73 barrier, Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7380/0.7180, needed to confirm.
Bullish daily technicals, with rising daily 20SMA underpinning the action, are supportive for further upside.
Meantime consolidation of today’s strong rally will be seen as likely scenario, with yesterday’s consolidation tops at 0.7235, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7195/0.7287 rally, expected to contain possible extended dips.
Res: 0.7287; 0.7305; 0.7335; 0.7361
Sup: 0.8265; 0.7252; 0.7235; 0.7195
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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