EURUSD - quick recovery after gap-lower open capped by daily cloud top so far

EURUSD

The Euro gapped lower at the beginning of the week, on expected action on Greek’s ‘No’ vote on Sunday. The single currency remains under pressure after today’s 110-pips gap, however, last Monday’s low at 1.0952 remains intact for now, as fresh Asian low was posted at 1.0967, on repeated probe below daily Ichimoku cloud base at 1.0992 that still acts as good support, following similar scenario seen last Monday. The pair recovered the biggest part of losses overnight, with near-term price action at fresh session highs, near Friday’s closing level. Technicals remain bearish overall, with daily indicators in the negative territory and bearish setup of daily MA’s, as 10/55SMA’s bear cross is forming at 1.1145. Daily cloud top at 1.1098, marks initial barrier, along with last Friday’s closing level, ahead of next pivotal levels at1.1120 zone, last week’s lower platform and 1.1145, MA’s bear-cross. Sustained break here would sideline immediate bear-pressure and signal scenario similar to the action seen a week ago, when the Euro recovered quickly and ended last Monday’s trading in long bullish Outside Day candle. Such scenario would also signal formation of daily higher base. Otherwise, expect the Euro to consolidate within daily Ichimoku cloud in the near-term, with the downside expected to stay vulnerable, if recovery attempts fail.


Res: 1.1086; 1.1096; 1.1120; 1.1145
Sup: 1.1030; 1.1010, 1.0967; 1.0952





GBPUSD

Cable closed overnight’s 36-pips gap on recovery action that looks for psychological 1.56 level, as initial barrier. Near-term tone remains negative and favors further downside, on completion of corrective action. Also, bearish pressure is increasing on daily chart, as the pair cracked support at 1.5548, 50% retracement of 1.5168/1.5928 upleg, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line and daily indicators are heading lower and gaining bearish momentum. Strong support at 1.5450, 200SMA, near Fibonacci 61.8% retracement and daily Ichimoku cloud top, remains in near-term focus, with recovery rallies expected to ideally hold below daily 20SMA at 1.5668, where descending daily 10SMA is attempting to form bear-cross. Alternatively, sustained break here is needed to ease downside pressure.

Res: 1.5600; 1.5642; 1.5660; 1.5681
Sup: 1.5548; 1.5528; 1.5500; 1.5450






USDJPY

The pair nearly fully covered overnight’s 94-pips gap, on quick recovery rally that peaked so far at 122.68. Attempts below last week’s fresh low at 121.92 were short-lived, as ascending daily Ichimoku cloud top and rising daily 55SMA, contained overnight’s weakness at 121.83 keeping the downside protected for now. However, tone of near-term studies remains weak, with bearishly aligned daily indicators, keeping the downside at risk, with clear break below daily cloud top / 55SMA, required to confirm and open next supports at 121.53, Fibonacci 61.8% of 118.87/125.84 rally and 121.00, daily 100SMA. On the upside, strong resistance zone lies at 123.10/23, daily Tenkan-sen / 20SMA and only close above here would neutralize immediate downside risk.

Res: 123.68; 123.10; 123.32; 123.70
Sup: 122.17; 121.83; 121.53; 121.00







AUDUSD

The pair posted fresh multi-year low at 0.7460, following today’s gap-lower opening that followed last Friday’s and weekly strong bearish close. As the close occurred below 0.7531, former low and key support, completion of 0.7531/0.8161 corrective phase is now completed and fresh leg of broader descend from 1.1079, peak of 2009, has commenced. On the other side, hourly price action is attempting to form near-term base, on repeated bounce from fresh session lows, action triggered by oversold near-term studies. Overall bears are expected to resume on completion of near-term recovery that faces initial strong resistance at 0.76, former base and consolidation floor, where rallies should be ideally capped. Penetration here to signal extended correction.

Res: 0.7516; 0.7535; 0.7600; 0.7647
Sup: 0.7500; 0.7460; 0.7400; 0.7350