EURUSD
The Euro maintains negative tone after last Friday’s sharp fall followed rejection at 1.2570, trendline resistance and nearly fully retraced 1.2357/1.2597 upleg. Long red candle of last Friday, as well as weekly bearish engulfing, suggest further weakness, as the pair opened the week with about 30 pips gap-lower, which was covered on a bounce to 1.24 zone, initial barrier and previous range floor. Next strong barrier lies at 1.2450, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2597/1.2360 descend and previous bull-channel support line, break of which would ease immediate downside pressure and allow for further correction towards 1.25 level, previous congestion floor and Fibonacci 61.8%, where extended rallies should be capped, guarding pivotal 1.2570/1.2600 resistance zone, former peaks, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line. Overall bears, however, see limited consolidative action, preceding fresh weakness, on a clear break below pivotal 1.2357 support, to open next targets at 1.2100, bull-trendline, connecting 2005 and 2010 lows and 1.2042, 24 July 2012 low.
Res: 1.2442; 1.2450; 1.2478; 1.2500
Sup: 1.2373; 1.2357; 1.2300; 1.2265
GBPUSD
The pair trades in extended consolidation above fresh lows at 1.5590, with upside attempts so far being capped by descending daily 10SMA. Last Friday’s and weekly close in red, maintain overall negative structure, which favors resumption of larger downtrend from 1.7189 peak, towards next target at 1.5373, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 1.4812/1.7189 ascend.
Only break above initial 1.5736 barrier and 1.5765, daily Tenkan-sen line, would sideline immediate downside risk, while break and close above 1.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.5939/1.5590 descend, is required to spark stronger correction.
Res: 1.5671; 1.5700; 1.5736; 1.5765
Sup: 1.5624; 1.5590; 1.5550; 1.5505
USDJPY
The pair enters near-term consolidative phase above 117.33 lows, where pullback from fresh high at 118.96, found support for now. Last Friday’s close in red, did not have more significant impact on overall bulls, confirmed by the fifth positive weekly close, with overall action being underpinned by ascending daily 10SMA/Tenkan-sen line at 116.85, which marks breakpoint and close bellow here to signal further acceleration lower. Otherwise, prolonged consolidation would precede fresh attempts higher, with higher base confirmation seen on a rally through 118.35 lower tops, for possible retest of 118.96 top.
Res: 118.35; 118.71; 118.96; 119.50
Sup: 118.10; 117.79; 117.56; 117.33
AUDUSD
The pair maintains overall negative tone, with near-term price action consolidating above key support at 0.8539. Friday’s positive close and probe above 0.87 barrier, was capped by descending daily 20SMA, however, near-term structure holds positive tone and looks for further upside. Sustained break above 0.8700/20 barriers, psychological barrier / recovery high, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line, is seen as minimum requirement to maintain positive tone for test of 0.8745/60 barriers and possible extension to pivotal 0.88 hurdle. On the other side, weekly close in red signals limited upside attempts and eventual attempt through pivotal 0.8539 support, to resume larger bears.
Res: 0.8700; 0.8720; 0.8745; 0.8763
Sup: 0.8603, 0.8564; 0.8539; 0.8500
The Euro maintains negative tone after last Friday’s sharp fall followed rejection at 1.2570, trendline resistance and nearly fully retraced 1.2357/1.2597 upleg. Long red candle of last Friday, as well as weekly bearish engulfing, suggest further weakness, as the pair opened the week with about 30 pips gap-lower, which was covered on a bounce to 1.24 zone, initial barrier and previous range floor. Next strong barrier lies at 1.2450, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2597/1.2360 descend and previous bull-channel support line, break of which would ease immediate downside pressure and allow for further correction towards 1.25 level, previous congestion floor and Fibonacci 61.8%, where extended rallies should be capped, guarding pivotal 1.2570/1.2600 resistance zone, former peaks, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line. Overall bears, however, see limited consolidative action, preceding fresh weakness, on a clear break below pivotal 1.2357 support, to open next targets at 1.2100, bull-trendline, connecting 2005 and 2010 lows and 1.2042, 24 July 2012 low.
Res: 1.2442; 1.2450; 1.2478; 1.2500
Sup: 1.2373; 1.2357; 1.2300; 1.2265
GBPUSD
The pair trades in extended consolidation above fresh lows at 1.5590, with upside attempts so far being capped by descending daily 10SMA. Last Friday’s and weekly close in red, maintain overall negative structure, which favors resumption of larger downtrend from 1.7189 peak, towards next target at 1.5373, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 1.4812/1.7189 ascend.
Only break above initial 1.5736 barrier and 1.5765, daily Tenkan-sen line, would sideline immediate downside risk, while break and close above 1.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.5939/1.5590 descend, is required to spark stronger correction.
Res: 1.5671; 1.5700; 1.5736; 1.5765
Sup: 1.5624; 1.5590; 1.5550; 1.5505
USDJPY
The pair enters near-term consolidative phase above 117.33 lows, where pullback from fresh high at 118.96, found support for now. Last Friday’s close in red, did not have more significant impact on overall bulls, confirmed by the fifth positive weekly close, with overall action being underpinned by ascending daily 10SMA/Tenkan-sen line at 116.85, which marks breakpoint and close bellow here to signal further acceleration lower. Otherwise, prolonged consolidation would precede fresh attempts higher, with higher base confirmation seen on a rally through 118.35 lower tops, for possible retest of 118.96 top.
Res: 118.35; 118.71; 118.96; 119.50
Sup: 118.10; 117.79; 117.56; 117.33
AUDUSD
The pair maintains overall negative tone, with near-term price action consolidating above key support at 0.8539. Friday’s positive close and probe above 0.87 barrier, was capped by descending daily 20SMA, however, near-term structure holds positive tone and looks for further upside. Sustained break above 0.8700/20 barriers, psychological barrier / recovery high, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line, is seen as minimum requirement to maintain positive tone for test of 0.8745/60 barriers and possible extension to pivotal 0.88 hurdle. On the other side, weekly close in red signals limited upside attempts and eventual attempt through pivotal 0.8539 support, to resume larger bears.
Res: 0.8700; 0.8720; 0.8745; 0.8763
Sup: 0.8603, 0.8564; 0.8539; 0.8500
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Geopolitics once again take centre stage, as UK Retail Sales wither
Nearly a week to the day when Iran sent drones and missiles into Israel, Israel has retaliated and sent a missile into Iran. The initial reports caused a large uptick in the oil price.