Technical Summary for Commodities

GOLD

Gold returned to weakness after yesterday’s brief consolidation which was capped at 1300 zone. Extension below key near-term support at 1292, confirms completion of 1292/1324 corrective rally and resumption of larger descend from 1344, 10 July peak. The price touched the next target at 1286, 200SMA / daily cloud top, below which to open 1280, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1240/1344 ascend. The third wave, which commenced from 1324 lower top, could travel to 1272, its 100% expansion and 1252, Fibonacci 138.2% expansion, on further acceleration lower. Psychological barrier at 1300, also yesterday’s lower top, offers initial resistance and should ideally cap recovery rallies. Otherwise prolonged corrective action towards 1305/10, would delay bears, while sustained break above 1310 is required to neutralize near-term bears.

Res: 1300; 1305; 1310; 1315
Sup: 1286; 1280; 1272; 1266





SILVER

Silver remains in negative near-term mode and extends fresh weakness which accelerated on a loss of psychological 21 handle. Bears dipped to 20.29 so far, where 200SMA offered temporary footstep, after losing support of Fibonacci 38.2% of 18.62/21.56 upleg, at 20.43. Consolidative action is under way and being so far limited at 20.50 zone, near 38.2% retracement of 20.89/20.29 downleg and previous low of 16 July, with stronger rallies expected to hold below 20.70 zone, previous consolidation range floor, to keep bears intact for attack at psychological 20.00 support, also 50% retracement of 18.62/21.56 upleg, reinforced by daily 55/100SMA’s bullish cross.

Res: 20.52; 20.70; 20.89; 21.10
Sup: 20.29; 20.00; 19.74; 19.43




CRUDE OIL

Crude Oil lost traction and heads lower, with reversal being signaled by yesterday’s inside day candle. Recovery attempt off 98.67 low was unable to sustain gains above psychological 103 barrier, also mid-point of 107.45/98.67 descend, on several attempts. Subsequent weakness accelerated on a break below 101.45 and pressures 101 support and 50% retracement of 98.67/103.37 upleg. Negative hourlies and 4-hour studies breaking below their midlines, favor extension and weekly close below 101 handle, to confirm reversal for test of 100.47, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement and psychological 100 support, in extension. Negative daily studies support the notion, with pause in the downmove above 101 handle, signaled by oversold hourly conditions.

Res: 101.45; 101.80; 102.21; 102.66
Sup: 101.00; 100.80; 100.47; 100.00